The US Federal Reserve paused its interest-rate hiking spree on Wednesday, avoiding what would have been an 11th consecutive increase. According to CNBC, the Fed was analysing the impact of the previous 10 increases on the economy, while leaving the rates unchanged at 5-5.25 per cent. It also added that further interest rate hikes were likely later this year, as the Fed struggles to achieve its inflation target of 2 per cent.
“We have raised our policy interest rate by five percentage points, and we’ve continued to reduce our security holdings at a brisk pace. We’ve covered a lot of ground and the full effects of our tightening have yet to be felt,” Fed Chair Jerome Powell said at a press conference on Wednesday.
Is inflation under control in US?
The decision made by Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) indicates a shift in its perspective on inflation. In June of last year, inflation reached a 40-year high of 9.1 per cent due to surging food and energy costs. However, inflation has since declined to 4 per cent in May, the lowest since April 2021.
In a statement, the FOMC explained that maintaining the target range for interest rates during this meeting would allow the committee to evaluate additional information and its implications for monetary policy. The committee will continue to assess the appropriate course of action while monitoring incoming data and its impact on the economic outlook.
Future interest rate hikes highly likely
Despite the decision to pause interest rate hikes, Fed officials have hinted that future increases may occur, depending on how close the economy gets to the 2 per cent inflation target. Higher interest rates result in increased borrowing costs, affecting mortgages, car payments, student loans, and other loans.
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Since March 2022, the Federal Reserve has raised interest rates 10 consecutive times, at a pace reminiscent of the 1980s. The increases have varied from 0.75 per cent during the summer and fall, when inflation was at its peak, to 0.25 per cent seen this spring. The current inflation rate stands at 5 per cent to 5.25 per cent, the highest since the 2008 financial crisis that preceded the 2008 global recession.
Fed continuously monitoring labour market
While the Federal Reserve has been using interest rates as a means to control inflation, it has also been closely monitoring the labour market for signs of economic cooling. In January, employers added 517,000 jobs, surpassing expectations and leading Fed officials to believe that interest rate increases could still occur without negatively impacting the job market.
Recent data from May indicates a robust job market, with the addition of 339,000 jobs. However, the unemployment rate has seen a slight increase from 3.4 per cent in April to 3.7 per cent in May.
