Ahead of the annual Munich Security Conference (MSC), which kicks off on Friday (Feb 16), the report which typically sets the scene for the gathering paints a grim picture, indicating that the world has entered an era where countries are no longer focused on benefits of global cooperation but rather relative advantage. Where does India stand in this global shift?
About the report
Overall the report indicates that there is a sense of pessimism, particularly in the West, about national security and economic outlook in the next 10 years, while people across the world continue to be most concerned about environmental threats.
Notably, contrary to the Western pessimism on national security and economic outlook, the report finds that people in India and China are “decidedly more optimistic” about their future.
WATCH | Munich Security Index 2024: Only UK, Japan view Russia as top threat among G7
The report titled ‘Lose-Lose?’ is based on the Munich Security Index (MSI) 2024, a survey of a representative sample of 1,000 people from each G7 country (Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States, and the European Union) and BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) countries, except Russia, on questions to explore citizens’ risk perceptions in these nations.
The MSI combines five metrics – overall risk, potential damage, expected trajectory, perceived imminence, and feelings of preparedness.
According to the report, following last year’s record-high threat perceptions this year there was an aggregate decrease across 21 risk indicators and an increase among 10.
What about India?
The survey, conducted between October 24 and November 16, 2023, shows that Russia’s standing among most countries since its invasion of Ukraine nearly two years ago has plummeted.
However, countries like India, China and South Africa continue to consider Russia more of an ally than a risk. In stark contrast to citizens in the G7 countries.
“In the BICS countries, risk perceptions have been less volatile since 2021, suggesting that citizens see Russia’s war to be less of a turning point,” said the report.
The report indicates that most Indian respondents were concerned about the environment, climate change and technology.
Notably, the perceived threat posed by China, fell from second place in 2023 to seventh place this year, according to the report and 10 per cent of respondents felt unprepared for the threat posed by Beijing.
Climate change and environment
At the top of the list of perceived risks among Indians was ‘climate change generally,’ according to the report.
The MSI report also noted a closing gap between the threat of ‘extreme weather and forest fires’ – which marked a significant rise and is up seven places to the fourth top most concern in India – and ‘climate change generally’ indicating that Indian respondents are linking the two aspects.
From deadly floods to forest fires, India witnessed a number of natural disasters in 2023 which could be linked to human-induced climate change. The country also experienced its second warmest year in 122 years last year, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD).
‘Destruction of natural habitat’ was also among the top three risks perceived by Indian respondents.
In July, the Indian parliament passed the Forest (Conservation) Amendment Act which drew widespread criticism from several state governments, policy experts, and conservationists.
The amendment in question exempts forest land up to 10 hectares for constructing security-related infrastructure and a 100-kilometre area around the country’s international borders for “strategic and security-related projects of national importance.”
In line with most countries across the world, India is also concerned about cyberattacks which were perceived as the second biggest risk among Indian respondents, according to the report.
A 2023 report by Check Point Software Technologies, an American-Israeli cyber threat intelligence analyst showed that India witnessed 1,787 cyber-attacks a week on average in an organisation, over the past six months, when compared to the global average of 983.
On the other hand, India has reportedly expressed less concern about ‘Autonomous robots/artificial intelligence’ compared to every other country surveyed, except China.
This comes as world leaders are being called on by experts to introduce laws to regulate the rampant growth of artificial intelligence (AI) warning of its alarming impact on society.
Munich Security Conference 2024
Leaders and representatives from around the world are set to gather in the German city of Munich from February 16 to 18, 2024. However, Russian and Iranian government officials have not been invited this year to the gathering.
Notably, the event will also take place ahead of the second anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and months into the war between Israel and the Palestinian militant group Hamas in Gaza.
The war in Gaza triggered by Hamas’ deadly October 7 attack on Israel is seemingly starting to spread to the rest of the Middle East as Iranian-backed groups entered the fray and Western nations continue to battle them in Iraq, Yemen and Syria.
“Unfortunately, this year’s report reflects a downward trend in world politics, marked by an increase in geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty…no wonder then that many governments are rethinking their international engagement,” Christoph Heusgen, chairman of the MSC, wrote in the foreword of the report.
However, he also noted that “while ‘de-risking’ in various ways is a necessary response to a changing and more dangerous geopolitical environment, a stronger focus on the relative gains of cooperation risks undermining the absolute benefits of cooperation.”
“We must avoid ending up in ever more lose-lose situations that come with the fragmenting global order,” Heusgen wrote.
The MSC chairman, on Tuesday (Feb 13), said that he hoped that the leaders and representatives from various countries would discuss these conflicts as well as others which are receiving less attention including the 10-month-old war in Sudan.
(With inputs from agencies)
