As European Union leaders meet in Brussels for their quarterly summit, with a goal of securing new financial and political support for Ukraine, one man is holding up both: Prime Minister Viktor Orban of Hungary.
Mr. Orban, who has in the past delayed some E.U. sanctions against Russia and is seen as President Vladimir V. Putin’s closest ally in the bloc, said on Thursday that Ukraine was not ready to start negotiating membership in the alliance. He also said that 50 billion euros, about $52 billion, in proposed aid for Ukraine should come only after Europe-wide elections planned for the summer.
The two-day E.U. summit is being held at a crucial moment for Ukraine: Its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, just held bruising meetings in Washington, where he was pleading for desperately needed money for his war effort that is threatened by political divisions in Congress. The E.U. aid would be a major prop, as would good news on at least opening formal negotiations on Ukraine’s membership prospects. Those steps might help turn around a souring atmosphere that includes a declaration on Thursday by Russia’s president, Vladimir V. Putin, that his war aims remain unchanged.
“Enlargement is not a theoretical issue,” Mr. Orban said as he arrived in Brussels for the summit. “Enlargement is a merit-based, legally detailed process, which has preconditions.” He said Ukraine had not fulfilled the formal criteria to open talks about membership.
He went further in a post on social media, arguing that Ukraine’s membership in the bloc was not in the “best interests” of Hungary or the European Union.
Can one European Union country hold up membership talks for Ukraine?
Accession to the European Union is subject to unanimous approval by all member states. So, yes, Mr. Orban’s veto could postpone any decision about Ukraine, which is currently awaiting the go ahead to formally open negotiations on joining the bloc.
Other E.U. leaders arriving in Brussels on Thursday said that they wanted to keep pushing Hungary to find a compromise.
“We have to reach some sort of agreement — we don’t have time to procrastinate or push it to the future,” said Prime Minister Kaja Kallas of Estonia, adding that Ukraine’s accession talks would take years, and that it would be a bad signal to postpone them.
Ukraine has been promised a fair but not expedited shot at joining the bloc. Kyiv views membership as a crucial guarantee of a prosperous and stable future, one that would help insulate it from Russian aggression, even if the European Union is not a defense alliance like NATO.
Can the European Union still provide more aid to Ukraine if Hungary disagrees?
Yes. The bloc has in the past used trusts to put together funds for causes that did not have support from all members, but that is a politically irritating process that many leaders would like to avoid.
“We cannot accept any blackmailing,” the prime minister of Finland, Petteri Orpo, said on Thursday. “We have to find a decision together.”
He added:“What we decide or what we don’t decide is a clear signal to Moscow, to Kyiv, to Washington, to Beijing,” Mr. Orpo added.
How urgent are aid and membership talks for Ukraine?
Technically speaking, neither the aid money for Ukraine nor the opening of its formal negotiations to join the bloc are urgent. The E.U. already has funding in place for Ukraine in its ongoing budget, while the $52 billion is earmarked for a new Ukraine Facility that will provide grants and loans to the country from 2024 to 2027.
As for the formal accession negotiations, these will likely take years, so whether they are launched in January or a little later will not make a material difference to the country’s prospects.
But both issues are symbolically and politically significant to Ukraine right now, because of the cooling of U.S. support and the desire of Ukraine’s leadership to start building on the country’s longer-term prospects.
Mr. Zelensky made this clear when he addressed E.U. leaders on Thursday via videoconference.
“This isn’t about what politicians need,” he said. “It’s about what people need. All those people in the trenches, shooting down drones and missiles every night, and all those working so children can learn even under constant Russian terror, and doctors can save lives even when Russia tries to destroy our energy or communication systems.”
He added that the “decision on opening accession negotiations is also vital for all those people in E.U. countries who believe that Europe can avoid falling back into old times of endless fruitless disagreements between capitals.”
Reaching agreement on these issues is also a matter of credibility for the E.U., as it tries to stand by Ukraine with the Kremlin looking for signs of fatigue and division.
These are the key reasons the 26 other E.U. leaders will be determined to push Mr. Orban during their summit. While they were set to discuss both aid and membership negotiations on Thursday, officials and diplomats have been warning that the talks could drag through the night into Friday — or even beyond that.
If an agreement appears impossible over the next two days, leaders could decide to break and reconvene in the new year.
Is Hungary bargaining to extract something from the European Union?
Critics have said Hungary’s objections to Ukraine’s formal membership talks and long-term funding are best understood as an effort by Mr. Orban to extract E.U. funds earmarked for Hungary. That money has been frozen over its violation of different E.U. rules.
On Wednesday, the E.U. released 10 billion euros, about $11 billion, in such frozen aid, a move many decried as capitulating to a Hungarian “blackmail.” The European Commission, which authorized the release, said it had acted after Hungary had fulfilled demands for judicial reforms. The timing, on the eve of the crucial Ukraine summit, was a coincidence, officials insisted.
Mr. Orban rejected the idea that his objections on Ukraine were an effort to pressure the E.U. to release money in exchange for his approval.
“We are here not to make business,” he said in Brussels Thursday. “It’s not about bargain. It’s not about a deal. We represent approaches and principles.”
Plus, he added, “Hungary does not connect any Hungarian issue to any Ukrainian or other issue.”
