KINGSHILL, U.S. Virgin Islands – As he takes a Caribbean break from Washington, President Joe Biden is mulling over a critical question: Should he run for a second term?
Biden, who arrived late Tuesday in St. Croix for a new year’s vacation with first lady Jill Biden, has said that he intends to seek reelection in 2024 but that no final decision will be made until he and his family talk over the possibility of another political campaign.
That discussion was likely to continue during the family’s getaway in St. Croix, a tiny tropical territory that’s part of the U.S. Virgin Islands, a favorite vacation spot for the Bidens. They have been coming to the island since he was vice president, although this is their first visit since Biden became president.
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The Democratic politician, who turned 80 last month, is widely expected to seek the White House again.
“I think the only reason – and it would obviously be a legitimate one – for President Biden not to run would be a personal choice,” said Navin Nayak, president of the Center for American Progress Action Fund, a liberal advocacy organization.
Doubts about Biden’s ability to do the job have mainly been put to rest by his performance over the past two years and by the party’s unexpectedly strong showing in the November midterms, Democrats say. The president’s party defied history and the pundits’ projections by holding on to its narrow majority in the Senate and keeping losses in the House to a minimum.
“It’s really hard to look at his last two years – and the success and progress he has made in moving the country forward and the way in which the American people have responded to his leadership – and not feel like he’s in step with a solid majority of the country,” Nayak said.
Biden’s favorable rating has inched up a percentage point to 46% since October in USA TODAY/Suffolk University polling. His unfavorable rating dropped by a point to 50%. Even so, his support from Democrats for a second term declined to 40% in December from 45% in the earlier survey, and among all voters, just 23% of Americans say Biden should run again.
In a year-end memo that cited the survey, senior Biden adviser Mike Donilon argued that Biden’s approval rating is “on the upswing” and there is “strong support for the President’s agenda” as gas prices drop and inflation eases.
“Make no mistake about it. Americans chose President Biden’s vision for an economy built from the bottom up and middle out,” Donilon said.
Biden has not received sufficient credit for what he has done and has a strong case to make on the campaign trail about what he would do with another four years in office, Rep. Pramila Jayapal said.
Jayapal chairs the Congressional Progressive Caucus and endorsed Bernie Sanders’ 2020 campaign to win the Democratic nomination but has been vocal about her support for Biden’s reelection.
“This is unusual for me to say: He was not my first choice or my second choice for president, but we have worked incredibly closely with this White House,” said Jayapal, D-Wash. “I think they really understand the need to mobilize our base, and to really give faith again to working people, poor people, folks of color, young people in our democracy and in the Democratic Party.”
Campaign-in-waiting
White House chief of staff Ron Klain said earlier this month that Biden probably will make a decision about 2024 shortly after the holidays.
“I expect the decision will be to do it,” Klain said at a forum hosted by the Wall Street Journal.
An official announcement may not come for months. Former presidents Barack Obama and George W. Bush did not launch their reelection bids until April and May of the year before the vote.
Obama’s announcement was seen as early at the time, said Patrick Gaspard, who was director of the White House Office of Political Affairs at the time.
“I know there some’s anxiety right now going into President Biden’s decision,” Gaspard said. “But I’d remind Democrats and those who are covering the contest that there is really, like, a long onramp for this decision.”
In the meantime, the Democratic National Committee, congressional Democrats and liberal outside groups, including the newly formed Facts First USA, are making plans to fill the void.
Facts First founder David Brock says his group’s focus will be on responding to the expected onslaught of House GOP investigations into the Biden administration and attacks by Republicans on the president and his son Hunter.
“In the time that there is no campaign, the White House will be able to rely on groups like Facts First to bridge the gap there when there’s no campaign activity whatsoever,” Brock said. “We’re established to run for the entire two years, and we’ll run alongside the campaign once there is one.”
Brock said that as an independent group, Facts First “has the flexibility to say and do things that are not appropriate for the White House to do so.”
“Even if we don’t think these investigations are legitimate, they’re happening. It’s reality,” he said. “And so you have to have an effective response to that, and that’s what we’re chartered to do.”
Liberal opposition research group American Bridge 21st Century says it has been compiling information on possible GOP presidential candidates and vice presidential nominees that will be useful to Democrats.
American Bridge will have trackers trailing the GOP field at political events and has been working to obtain documents, emails and other public records from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ administration, said the group’s president, Pat Dennis.
The DNC is hiring communications staffers in the early-voting Republican primary states of Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina to oversee messaging around Biden’s potential challengers’ visits, and in Florida, a battleground state that is home to former President Donald Trump and expected GOP contender DeSantis.
Democratic Party investments in organizing and fundraising in the midterms will also be a significant help to Biden, former Obama aide and DNC executive director Gaspard said.
“This president, should he choose to run again, will have already deep, deep, deep foundational pillars that are in place,” said Gaspard, president and CEO of the Center for American Progress.
The Trump factor
One of the principal factors weighing on Biden as he decides whether to run for a second term is the possibility of a rematch with Trump in 2024.
Several polls show Trump losing ground after the November midterms, raising doubts about whether he will be the GOP nominee in 2024. In the latest USA TODAY/Suffolk poll, Republican and Republican-leaning voters said they preferred DeSantis to Trump by double digits.
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In DeSantis, Republicans see someone who would pursue many of the same policies as Trump but who isn’t weighed down by the former president’s baggage, said Scott Jennings, a veteran Republican strategist who worked in the White House under George W. Bush.
With DeSantis, “you get all the candy and none of the diabetes,” he said.
In contrast, Biden’s “the president – his party is not going to throw him out,” Jennings said. “So it’s really his to decide. I don’t think he’s going to have to fight for (the nomination) the way Trump is.”
Biden leads Trump by more than 7 points. But he would lose in a head-to-head race with DeSantis, 47%-43%, in a hypothetical matchup, the December survey found.
“The Biden reelection effort is predicated on Donald Trump being the Republican nominee, because that, frankly, is the only Republican who they can defeat,” said former Bush adviser Karl Rove. “If they have a traditional Republican who is capable of running a campaign focused on the future and not on grievances about the 2020 election, it’s going to be awfully hard for Biden to win.”
Michael Collins and Francesca Chambers cover the White House. Follow Collins on Twitter @mcollinsNEWS and Chambers @fran_chambers.
