With about $29 million separating the Phillies from the MLB luxury tax, assuming the number remains at $210 million in 2022, it’ll be interesting to see what Dave Dombrowski does to address the numerous needs on this team once the lockout ends.
The Phillies’ president of baseball operations would like to add at least one and possibly two starting outfielders, upgrade the infield and add some reliable arms to the beleaguered bullpen.
Here are 22 predictions for the Phils in ’22:
1. Banner year for Hoskins: Coming off of season-ending surgery to repair an abdominal tear, first baseman Rhys Hoskins flourishes in the cleanup hole behind National League MVP Bryce Harper and picks up where he left off before suffering the injury (.329 average, 1.195 OPS, 7 home runs, 24 RBIs in 25 games). He leads the Phillies in home runs with 38.
2. Schwarber comes to Philly: Left fielder Kyle Schwarber agrees to a three-year, $57 million free agent contract with the Phillies and splits the season between batting leadoff and in the middle of the lineup.
3. Case for the defense: Veteran center fielder Kevin Kiermaier, a three-time Gold Glove selection, arrives in a trade from Tampa Bay and provides a huge, much-needed defensive boost while hitting eighth.
4. Learning about Girardi: If Dombrowski fills some of the holes in the roster from 2021, Joe Girardi should have his best shot at making the playoffs, which could be expanded to four wild-card clubs per league, after two moderately disappointing, postseason-less campaigns from a managerial standpoint.
5. The bottom line: The Phillies will win more than 82 games for the first time since 2011, but this might not be a playoff team unless Dombrowski gives Girardi some help and Girardi figures out how to maximize the players’ abilities.
6. New starter, for openers: After finishing a close second in the NL Cy Young race, staff ace Zack Wheeler is the starting pitcher on opening day. Aaron Nola, who is coming off of an up-and-down year, started the past four openers.
7. Wondering about Nola: The Phillies need Nola to have a bounce-back 2022 campaign coming off of his worst season in the past five. He averaged just 5.65 innings per start with a 4.63 ERA and really struggled on the road, where Nola’s ERA in 18 starts was 5.27 and he managed 4.11 strikeouts per walk (compared to 9.33 at home).
8. Three Phillies earn all-star spots: I’ll go with Harper, catcher J.T. Realmuto and Wheeler.
9. One last shot: Didi Gregorius gets the first crack at being the everyday shortstop coming off of a disappointing season, but his continued offensive struggles result in him losing the job.
10. Stott makes an impact: The promising Bryson Stott begins the year with Triple-A Lehigh Valley, but takes over as the Phils’ starting shortstop in July.
11. Bohm is on the spot: After finishing second in the NL Rookie of the Year balloting in 2019, third baseman Alec Bohm struggled mightily last year, ending up in Triple-A, and could be on a short leash.
12. Suarez again handles multiple roles: After excelling as a reliever, closer and starting pitcher in 2021, Ranger Suarez begins ’22 as a starter, only to move back into the bullpen in the second half of the season. He continues to be effective in every role.
13. Can Gibson pitch in? Kyle Gibson helped solidify the starting rotation after arriving in a trade-deadline deal from the Rangers, but he wasn’t as effective later in the season and finished with a 5.09 ERA in 12 appearances (11 starts). He should be more consistent in his first full NL season.
14. Helping in the ‘pen: While Dombrowski has looked at potential closer options, young right-hander Connor Brogdon has the velocity, pitches and temperament to handle the seventh or eighth inning this year and perhaps the ninth inning eventually.
15. Trouble with the Fish: The Phillies’ penchant for having difficulty with the lowly Marlins remains alive and well. Miami has a 27-21 record vs. Philadelphia over the past three seasons despite finishing 74 games under .500 during that span.
17. What was his name again? The Phils and their fans don’t miss maddening pitcher Vince Velasquez at all – except in an extra-inning game when they run out of position players and need an emergency left fielder.
18. Catching a new backup: Moving on from No. 2 catcher Andrew Knapp was long overdue. Knapp hit .200 with a slugging average of .307 over the last four seasons, accumulating nearly twice as many strikeouts (206) as hits (108) during that span. Whether Dombrowski signs a journeyman or the Phils promote somebody like Rafael Marchan to back up Realmuto, it’ll be an upgrade.
16. Could Segura be traded? Going into the final year of his contract that’ll pay him $14.25 million, second baseman Jean Segura finds himself the subject of trade talks by the deadline.
Holes to fill in outfield:Phillies need two outfield starters in 2022, but who will they be able to get? And when?
Playing the waiting game:How the MLB lockout affects the Phillies’ plans for the 2022 season
Chance to make a difference:Preston Mattingly’s task is to get Phillies’ farm system operating more effectively
19. Issues with the Mets linger: These NL East rivals don’t like each other and, on May 1, things boil over at Citi Field. On April 30, 2021, both benches emptied at Citizens Bank Park after Phillies reliever Jose Alvarado and the Mets’ Dominic Smith nearly came to blows.
20. Pitching in: Acquired in the Spencer Howard/Gibson trade, young right-hander Hans Crouse made two starts late last season for the Phillies and pitches out of the bullpen and fills in as a starter.
21. Role for Camargo? After spending all but 16 regular-season at bats playing for the Braves’ Triple-A team last season, Camargo could end up closer to his 2019 total of 248 plate appearances with the Phils as a utility infielder and Plan B starter at third base if Bohm cannot get the job done.
22. Gone and nearly forgotten: Scott Kingery, once a integral part of the team’s future and the recipient of a six-year, $24 million contract extension in March 2018, plays even less for the Phillies after going 1 for 19 at the plate in ’21.
Tom Moore: tmoore@couriertimes.com; @TomMoorePhilly
