Would US forces defend Taiwan? Biden again says, ‘yes’

Appearing on the CBS program “60 Minutes” on Sunday, Biden was asked whether “US forces, US men and women would defend Taiwan in the event of a Chinese invasion,” a prospect US officials privately fear is becoming more likely.

It’s not the first time Biden has appeared to venture beyond the longstanding US approach of “strategic ambiguity” when it comes to the defense of Taiwan. Most recently, during a visit to Tokyo in May, Biden said the US would intervene militarily if China attempts to take Taiwan by force.

Taiwan lies fewer than 110 miles (177 kilometers) off the coast of China. For more than 70 years the two sides have been governed separately, but that hasn’t stopped China’s ruling Communist Party from claiming the island as its own — despite having never controlled it.

Chinese leader Xi Jinping has said that “reunification” between China and Taiwan is inevitable and refused to rule out the use of force. Tensions between Beijing and Taipei are at the highest they’ve been in recent decades, with the Chinese military holding major military drills near the island.

Under the “One China” policy, the US acknowledges China’s position that Taiwan is part of China, but has never officially recognized the Communist Party’s claim to the self-governing island of 23 million. The US provides Taiwan defensive weapons, but has remained intentionally ambiguous on whether it would intervene militarily in the event of a Chinese attack.

Biden repeated his commitment to those policies in the “60 Minutes” interview.

“We agree with what we signed onto a long time ago. And that there’s ‘one China’ policy, and Taiwan makes their own judgments about their independence. We are not moving — we’re not encouraging their being independent … That’s their decision,” he said.

But asked if US forces would defend the island, he said they would: “Yes, if in fact there was an unprecedented attack.”

China has not responded to Biden’s comments as of Monday morning. Previously, Beijing had expressed “firm opposition” to similar comments made by the US President, and accused Washington of violating the “One China” principle.

Biden would get ‘spectrum of options’

Biden’s comments Sunday are likely to prompt renewed speculation about potential changes to the US’ Taiwan policy, but analysts noted that his choice of words offered room for interpretation and were by no means unequivocal.

Drew Thompson, visiting senior research fellow at the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, said “we are always tempted to read a great deal into the President’s statements,” but Biden’s view hadn’t really changed.

Thompson, a former US Defense Department official, said the specific nature of any US defense doesn’t necessarily mean American boots on the ground in Taiwan.

In the event of any Chinese attack on the island, the Pentagon would present Biden with “a spectrum of options” for the deployment of US forces, he said.

Using US naval assets or air power in an offshore role, even US cyber assets to hamper a possible Chinese invasion, or just a US show of force in the region could all be among those options.

Biden’s latest statement may place further strains on US-China relations, following US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei in August. Beijing responded to her trip with unprecedented military drills around the island.

Xi also said he appreciated “Russia’s adherence to the ‘one China’ principle and stressed that Taiwan is a part of China.”

Invasion fears

Debates around the likelihood of a potential Chinese invasion have intensified in the wake of Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine, with many analysts indicating Beijing will likely be carefully monitoring the situation in Europe.

The US intelligence community has made clear its belief that China is actively attempting to build a military capable of taking over Taiwan — even in the face of US support for the island.

Last week, CIA Deputy Director David Cohen said that while Xi has not made the decision to invade Taiwan, he wants China’s People’s Liberation Army to have the capability to take control of the island by force by 2027.

The US intelligence community does not believe that Beijing has made a decision about whether or not to proceed, said Cohen, adding that it is believed Xi would prefer to gain control of Taiwan through “nonmilitary means.”

The CIA official also said the agency is paying close attention to what lessons China is learning from the war in Ukraine.

“We are watching very carefully how the Chinese are understanding the situation in Ukraine — how the Russians have performed, how the Ukrainians have performed, and the implications of that for their own plans as they may be in Taiwan,” Cohen said.