Two weeks later, Rossgram shared an update on its Telegram channel telling prospective users that the app was undergoing “internal testing” and warning them that any offers to download Rossgram were coming from “scammers.”
The launch is still pending. “The product is currently under development. It is too early to talk about launch,” Zobov told CNN Business in a written response in Russian via a representative. The current focus, he said, is ensuring data security and operating capability for the “expected increasing loads” when it’s eventually made available to the public. “We don’t want to release a crude product,” Zobov added, claiming Rossgram has already received “hundreds of thousands” of applications. “Too much responsibility.”
Some Russia watchers are skeptical that the new platform can achieve any kind of mainstream success. “It’s not literally a joke, but it’s never going to happen,” Ian Garner, a historian and translator of Russian war propaganda, told CNN Business. “This is one of those sort of patriotic ideas thrown out by some bold, young entrepreneur in a time of crisis.”
WhatsApp’s continued availability, in particular, may also point to a harsh reality for the Russian government, according to those who track the country’s internet market: Some services are simply too popular to ban, or to ban all at once, an issue that may only be complicated when there are not as many clear alternatives to replace them.
Russia’s homegrown tech ecosystem
For years, Russia’s internet has had trappings of both east and west. But now, as Russia raises a digital iron curtain and takes a sharp turn toward China’s much more restricted internet model, it does so without having the same robust internet and technology ecosystem as that country.
“China’s market is much larger, which probably makes self-sufficiency easier for them,” said Joanna Szostek, a lecturer in political communications at the University of Glasgow, Scotland, whose research focuses on Russia and Ukraine. “China’s internet has been isolated from the very early days; for Russians, the new isolation will be experienced as more of a loss and disruption.”
Russia does have established homegrown tech companies such as VK, the biggest Russian social network, and Yandex, whose services include a popular search engine and a ride-hailing platform. But those companies are smaller and also under pressure from global sanctions on Russia over the Ukraine invasion, given their dependence on western firms for key infrastructure.
“A number of companies based in the US, UK, EU and elsewhere have indicated that they are currently suspending supplies and services to customers in Russia, which might affect us in the future, if we are unable to secure alternative sources,” Yandex said in a statement to CNN Business. “But for now our current data center capacity and other technology critical to operations allow us to continue to operate in the ordinary course.”
The challenge to bolster the country’s tech ecosystem may only be complicated by what Russia experts argue is corruption and ineptitude in the Russian government as well as by tech talent fleeing the country.
“Many IT experts are now leaving the country,” said Mariëlle Wijermars, an assistant professor of cybersecurity and politics at Maastricht University in the Netherlands, whose work focuses on Russian internet policy. “We’ve seen quite a large number emigrating already over the past few years … now this is again picking up.”
“This is another very clear vulnerability, the brain drain that will also really affect their potential,” Wijermars added.
The WhatsApp dilemma
Even as Russia cracks down on western platforms, it has held back with some.
“Each time you block, especially a popular resource, that means that you’re creating an inconvenience,” said Wijermars. “In this case, by blocking Instagram, they are creating a very large inconvenience, so to also block WhatsApp might then be too much at the same time.”
Banning YouTube may prove even more complicated. The Google-owned video streaming service is Russia’s most popular online platform and occupies a unique place in the country’s online ecosystem.
“YouTube is the most widely used of all the western platforms in Russia, and it can’t be easily replaced,” said Szostek, adding that “there are other video hosting platforms, but not with the same scale and range of content.”
And it’s not just the Russian people who are avid users of YouTube — it’s also the Russian state. “It’s a very important propaganda tool, especially for the younger generations who might not watch regular television,” said Wijermars.
WhatsApp declined to comment for this story, while Google did not respond to a request for comment.
If Russia does enact a blanket ban on western tech platforms, Russians accustomed to using those platforms will probably find ways to continue doing so — as evidenced by the recent spike in Russian downloads of virtual private network (VPN) apps that allow users to circumvent internet restrictions.
“Millions of Russians have downloaded VPNs. So we can expect some people to keep using them,” said Szostek. “I would expect a lot of Russians (the younger, more tech-savvy ones) to keep accessing YouTube via VPN even if it is ultimately banned.”
