House Republicans are in position to reach the 218 seats they need to flip the chamber after the midterm elections. As of Friday, CBS News estimates Republicans will win at least 213 seats while Democrats are estimated to win at least 206 seats. In several of the outstanding races, Republicans are ahead.
There are currently just under 30 races that have not been called. At least 10 seats are considered “battlegrounds” and there are a handful of other races that have remained tight since Tuesday. Sixteen of the uncalled races are in California, a reliably Democratic state that has several competitive Congressional districts this cycle.
Democratic strategists who work on House races this cycle say it would take a “miracle,” but Democrats do have a possible path to retaining the majority. Their path to do so would require a clean sweep in all 13 remaining uncalled seats that are designated by CBS News as “likely” Democrat or “lean” Democrat. This includes nine seats in California alone, with several Democrats in tight races.
They would then have to win at least 7 of the 13 seats that are rated as “toss ups” or “Lean Republican” by CBS News.
In nine of California’s uncalled and competitive races (California’s 3rd, 9th, 13th, 22nd, 26th, 27th, 41st, 45th, 47th and 49th), six have Republicans in the lead. Four of those feature Republicans leading by more than 6 points, while two have margins of 1 point or less.
But at least two of those, Democratic incumbents, Reps. Katie Porter and Mike Levin, are expected to take the lead once the remaining mail ballots are counted, said Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data Inc.
For Republicans, California could help them get to the edge of clinching the majority — if their candidates hold their leads. If Republicans win in all of them, and that’s added to the 211 races that have been officially called by CBS News for Republicans, this will put Republicans at 217 seats — one away from the majority.
Only a fraction of the vote has been reported for these districts, due to the extended time that clerks have to report the final results, and mail ballots that were postmarked by Election Day may be received until next Tuesday.
Mitchell said for any chance for Democrats to hold the House, they’d have to win in the 22nd, 27th and 41st, all districts where the Republican incumbent is in the lead.
“If Democrats won all three of those races in California, then think the odds go up that the Democrats can hold the House. But if Democrats lose one of those three, the odds go way down, they lose two of those three, the door slams shut,” Mitchell said.
Sarah Chamberlain, president of the Republican Main Street Partnership group which works with more moderate House Republicans, said she’s confident Republican Valadao and Calvert will hold their seats.
In the 11 remaining races designated as “battlegrounds” by CBS News, which include four races in California, Republicans are leading in seven of them. They also lead in one other tight race: Colorado’s 3rd District, where GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert is in the lead by around 1,100 votes.
Democratic incumbents are in the lead in three Nevada seats and in Maine’s 2nd District and Alaska’s At-Large District, two seats with ranked choice voting.
“From the math that we’ve done — I think it’s a foregone conclusion [that Republicans take the House],” said Chamberlain. “But it’s gonna be very close. It’s gonna be just a couple of seats. And it shouldn’t be I mean, this should have been a landslide, frankly.”
In the primaries, Chamberlain’s group supported Republican candidates like Reps. Peter Meijer of Michigan and Jamie Herrera-Beutler, House Republicans who were targeted by former President Donald Trump. Chamberlain argued that the further-right candidates who beat their mainstream Republican picks would have been more competitive in the general election.
She said that candidate quality issue, as well as a disconnect between Trump and the rest of the Republican establishment, was a reason control of the House remains so tight.
“I don’t think Trump’s going away,” Chamberlain said. “We just need to make better decisions with Trump. I do think some of the Trump candidates hurt us on Tuesday. And that’s why we need to work together as a party and move forward.”
