PHILADELPHIA − At least we know.
Yes, the Phillies have shown that they can channel their June surge from last year as they came into their early-season showdown against the Braves having won 13 of their previous 15 games after falling 7 games under .500. They went on a similar run last year in June, winning 13 of 15 after falling 7 games under .500.
But, as became painfully obvious Tuesday night, the Phillies still have a long way to go to catch the Braves in the NL East after Atlanta beat them 4-2 on Tuesday.
The Braves took advantage of every bad break for the Phillies, every move by manager Rob Thomson that backfired, and every hitting or base-running mistake.
The Braves have won 14 of 16, improved to 47-26 and lead the Phillies (38-35) by 9 games. Sure, the Phillies can still win the next two games in this series. But with the more balanced schedule this season, the Phillies won’t face the Braves again until September, and they’ll only have seven games left against them.
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“They’re playing well,” Thomson said about the Braves. “I mean, 21 games over .500, I’d be having fun too.”
The Phillies were having fun over the past few weeks as well, even reviving their victory song from last season, “Dancing On My Own.” They were doing this despite Bryce Harper’s mysterious power outage.
Harper has just 3 homers and 16 RBIs in 156 at-bats this season. His last homer was May 25, a span of 22 games. It’s safe to say that Harper has never had such a stretch in his career, even though he’s hitting .301.
Harper has played in 41 games this season since returning from off-season elbow surgery, which equates to one-fourth of a full season.
Harper has never had fewer than 13 homers in a season, which he did twice − once in 2014 when he had just 352 at-bats, and again in 2020, the COVID shortened season, when Harper had just 244 at-bats. He’s had 156 at-bats this season.
“I gotta stay the course,” Harper said. “I can’t try to (hit home runs) because if I try to do it, then I’m going to punch out and not get on base. I gotta take my walks and I gotta keep getting on base and having good days.
“I’ve never really struggled with power in my career. It’s not me talking great about myself, but I just feel like the power will come, those numbers will come. But again, I can’t try to do that, because if I try to do it, it’s just not going to be good.”
And it wasn’t good Tuesday after the Phillies reverted to their May form by making some fundamental mistakes that had left them in last place as recently as June 2.
There was Kyle Schwarber’s decision to try bunting for a base hit in the seventh inning even though Schwarber has 20 home runs this season and absolutely pulverized two line drive singles in his previous three at-bats. He was thrown out easily.
Not to be outdone, J.T. Realmuto was thrown out at second trying to stretch a single. That ended the eighth inning. Had Realmuto stayed at first base, the potential tying run would have come to the plate in Bryson Stott.
“Just being over-aggressive,” Thomson said. “Just trying to do too much.”
But there are still plenty of signs that the Phillies could very well be a factor late into October, just like last season.
Ranger Suarez continued to make a case for ace-like status. He allowed just a run on four hits in his six innings while striking out seven. This was against a Braves team that came into the game having scored 56 runs in their previous six games, an average of 9.3 per game.
In his last four starts, Suarez has allowed 3 earned runs over 26 innings, an ERA of 1.04.
“The main two things that have helped me have success lately are the execution of my pitches … and try to stay ahead in the count,” Suarez said through a team interpreter.
Schwarber has continued to own the month of June with 7 homers and 14 RBIs so far this month. It’s a similar pattern to previous Junes. He had 12 homers and 27 RBIs June of 2022, and 16 homers and 30 RBIs in 2021 when he was with the Washington Nationals.
Nick Castellanos is hitting .315 this season. And even Trea Turner, after a dreadful start to the season, has been playing well lately.
Through it all, Thomson never panicked, and that resonated too.
“I think we have a really experienced group,” Thomson said. “They’ve been through this a bunch. And they understand the length of the season, and you can’t get too up, you can’t get too down.”
The only thing missing is Harper’s power.
In addition to the lineup that is finally coming together, there’s the starting pitching staff that has a 1.72 ERA over the past 16 games. It might not be enough to catch the Braves for the NL East division title. But it should be enough for a wildcard spot and another chance for a long playoff run.
So Harper will keep swinging, and he’ll keep taking ground balls at first base, where he could start playing after the All-Star break. And he’ll continue throwing in the outfield. Harper revealed Tuesday that he threw from 120 feet before the game.
When asked about playing the field any time soon, Harper said, “I’m not even close to being there.”
But Thomson knew better when asked if it might happen before the break next month.
“He’s made me a liar so many times because he’s such a quick healer,” Thomson said.
For now, the Phillies would settle for the return of Harper’s power stroke, and some better decisions on the base paths.
“That’s a game we definitely let get away from us,” Harper said.
Contact Martin Frank at mfrank@delawareonline.com. Follow on Twitter @Mfranknfl.
