History hands Delaware one very favorable omen and another that isn’t so promising with the Blue Hens’ postseason lives on the line this weekend.
Delaware will take a 7-3 record to Villanova for Saturday’s 1 p.m. regular-season finale with the rival Wildcats.
Should the Blue Hens prevail, an 8-3 record would likely earn them one of the 13 at-large invitations to the 24-team bracket. The NCAA Division I Football Championship Subdivision (FCS) playoff field will be announced Sunday at 12:30 p.m. on ESPNU.
“This is just another opportunity to capitalize and prove to the world that we do belong where we want to go,” UD linebacker Liam Trainer said Monday.
Since moving up from Division II to what was then called Division I-AA in 1980, Delaware has closed the regular season with an 8-3 record in six seasons. The only time Delaware didn’t make the playoffs was in 1984, when it was an 8-team bracket.
It was a 16-team field when Delaware went 8-3 and qualified in 1986, 1993, 1996, 2004 and 2007. But it’s been a 24-team field since 2013, increasing the Blue Hens’ chances.
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What works against the Hens is its terrible recent history against Villanova.
Delaware has lost nine of the last 10 and 14 of the last 16 versus Villanova, including many when the Blue Hens appeared superior. That is certainly the case this year as Villanova is 5-5 after being dismantled 45-12 at William & Mary Saturday.
“It’s one of those games that it doesn’t matter who’s having a good year, who’s having a bad year,” said first-year Delaware coach Ryan Carty, who played on Delaware teams that went 3-2 against the Wildcats from 2002-06. “ . . . I don’t see why this one won’t be any different.”
Delaware will likely have to hope the NCAA is willing to pluck more than four CAA teams for just the second time since 2013. The Hens were among six chosen in 2018 when they went 7-4.
William & Mary, Richmond and Elon have likely cemented spots and New Hampshire should also with a victory at rival Maine on Saturday.
The Hens’ three losses are to William & Mary, Elon and Richmond, the latter an agonizing 21-13 setback Saturday that Delaware failed to put away when it had the chance only to see the Spiders rally for the win.
“That was as tough a loss as you can have as far as the way it went down,” Carty said.Delaware’s season-opening win at FBS Navy should boost its chances in the eyes of selectors. Delaware is now ranked No. 20 nationally.
Only the top eight teams are seeded. They earn first-round byes.
The remaining 16 are bracketed based as much as possible on geographic proximity. First-round matchups between conference rivals are avoided, unless the schools did not meet during the regular season. Delaware could then, for instance, face New Hampshire.
In selecting sites between unseeded teams, the first three factors the NCAA cites are “quality of facility,” “revenue potential plus estimated net receipts” and “attendance history and potential.” Those likely lead toward Delaware Stadium being the site of a first-round game Nov. 26.
Delaware’s average home paid attendance this season is 16,902, which ranks No. 8 in FCS and is the highest since 2013 (18,108).
There are 15 FCS conferences, with automatic playoff bids going to champions of the Big Sky, Big South, CAA, Missouri Valley, Northeast Conference, Ohio Valley Conference, Patriot League, Pioneer League, Southern Conference and Southland. Impending defections to FBS that have made several schools ineligible for the FCS playoffs and shrunk league affiliation means just one team will be selected from either the Atlantic Sun and Western Athletic Conference.
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The Ivy League still oddly refuses to send its champion to the FCS tournament even though its winners in every other sport do compete for NCAA titles. The MEAC and SWAC champions advance to the Celebration Bowl Dec. 17 in Atlanta, though other teams, such as 9-2 Florida A & M, are eligible for NCAA at-large berths.
So who might be in that 24-team FCS bracket? A conference-by-conference look:
Big Sky
Either Sacramento State (10-0) or Montana State (9-1), which have not met and are unbeaten in the league, will be the automatic qualifier with wins Saturday over UC-Davis and Montana, respectively. ESPN GameDay will be stationed in Bozeman for the annual Brawl of the Wild in Montana. Both will be in the playoffs regardless, along with Weber State (8-2). A win for Montana (7-3) would get the Grizzlies in the field and UC-Davis (6-4), with a win, would also be in the picture since its losses were to FBS California and three FCS playoff entries. Idaho (6-4 with two FBS losses) isn’t out of the picture either, considering it has a win over Montana. Who’s in? Sacramento State, Montana State, Weber State, Montana.
Big South
This one is simple. One team goes and it’ll be the winner of Saturday’s game between North Carolina A&T (7-3) and host Gardner-Webb (5-5). The Aggies, who’ll be in the CAA next year, have won seven straight. Who’s in? North Carolina A & T.
CAA
Richmond (8-2) earns the CAA’s automatic berth if it can topple William & Mary (9-1) in their season-ending clash. A Tribe win would result in a tie for the title with New Hampshire, provided the Wildcats (7-3) prevail at Maine. Elon (9-2), with wins over William & Mary and Richmond, is playoff-bound. Delaware should join them with a win at Villanova. Rhode Island (6-4) will be in the discussion if it beats Albany, though there may not be quite enough room for the Rams. Who’s in? William & Mary, Richmond, New Hampshire, Elon, Delaware.
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Missouri Valley Football Conference
The MVFC isn’t as deep as it has been, but it certainly has strength at the top. South Dakota State (10-1) has already secured the automatic bid by virtue of its win over defending FCS champ North Dakota State. The 8-2 Bison will still be among the eight seeds. North Dakota (7-3) has the difficult task of possibly needing a win at North Dakota State Saturday to make the field. A loss may leave them out. Who’s in? South Dakota State, North Dakota State, North Dakota.
Northeast Conference
St. Francis (Pa.) has won eight straight to improve to 8-2 and has already secured the NEC’s berth because first-year league member Merrimack (also 8-2, 6-0) is ineligible during its transition to Division I. St. Francis is a possible first-round foe at Delaware in a rematch of a 27-10 Hen win early in the 2021 fall season. Who’s in? St. Francis.
Ohio Valley Conference
How absurd is this? Southeast Missouri (8-2, 4-0) and UT-Martin (6-4, 4-0) didn’t meet. But if both win Saturday – SEMO against Murray State and UT-Martin versus Eastern Illinois – who represents the league in the FCS playoffs will be determined by a coin flip. The incomplete league schedule resulted from Lindenwood recently becoming the league’s seventh team but officials preferring to keep a 5-game conference schedule and not disturb pre-arranged nonconference games. If both win and SEMO loses the coin flip, it’ll be a strong at-large candidate. Who’s in? SEMO.
Patriot League
Holy Cross (10-0) has already clinched the Patriot League title and is destined for a top-8 seed. What will be very interesting to see is if Fordham (8-2), which closes against Colgate, gets an at-large spot. The Rams appear quite deserving considering they lost 53-52 in OT to Holy Cross and led by 11 in the fourth quarter before falling 59-52 at FBS Ohio. Who’s in? Holy Cross, Fordham.
Pioneer League
Transitioning-to-FCS St. Thomas is ineligible for the playoffs, meaning Dayton (8-2) earns the berth with a win at Davidson. Wins by Davidson (7-3) and Butler (7-3), which plays St. Thomas, would create a three-way deadlock that the league will have to break to decide its lone entry. Who’s in? Davidson.
Southern Conference
The automatic bid already belongs to Samford (9-1). Furman (8-2) has probably already earned a spot heading into its finale against Wofford. Chattanooga (7-3) likely gives the SoCon three playoff teams with a win at Western Carolina. Mercer (7-3) could make a case if it closes with an upset win at Samford. Who’s in? Samford, Furman, Chattanooga.
Southland Conference
Southeastern Louisiana (7-3) gets the auto bid with a win at Nicholls State but likely can’t afford to lose. Incarnate Word (9-1), which suffered its only lost to SLU, has done enough to qualify. Who’s in? SLU, Incarnate Word.
WAC/Atlantic Sun
Power ratings will determine who gets this berth, with WAC leader Abilene Christian (7-3) the most likely heading into its finale against Stephen F. Austin. Central Arkansas (5-5) has the best chance among Atlantic Sun schools but has a tough test against FBS-bound Jacksonville State. That opens the door for Austin Peay (7-3), which closes against Alabama and might be at-large material, or Eastern Kentucky (6-4), which plays Kennesaw State. Who’s in? Abilene Christian.
Have an idea for a compelling local sports story or is there an issue that needs public scrutiny? Contact Kevin Tresolini at ktresolini@delawareonline.com and follow on Twitter @kevintresolini. Support local journalism by subscribing to delawareonline.com.
