Voters in Kentucky will go to the polls on Tuesday to choose a governor, as incumbent Democratic Gov. Andy Beshear tries to defend his seat in Republican-leaning Kentucky against GOP challenger, Attorney General Daniel Cameron.
As recently as mid-October, Beshear was leading by 16 points, but an Emerson College poll from last week had the race in a dead heat, with both candidates at 47% and 4% undecided. One of the more troubling signs for Beshear was that in October, 54% of former President Donald Trump’s supporters planned on supporting Cameron, but that number shot up to 79% last week — a 22% increase. Trump won the state by 26 points in 2020, making his voters essential to Beshear’s reelection hopes.
He’s been popular, with broad approval of his handling of the pandemic and natural disasters in the state. Cameron has worked to tie Beshear to President Biden, saying at a rally on Monday that “it is crazy to have a governor here in Kentucky who would openly endorse Joe Biden for President.”
In an off-year election, the race will come down to turnout, says Dewey Clayton, a political science professor at University of Louisville.
Who is Andy Beshear?
The son of a former governor, Beshear, 45, was elected in 2019, unseating incumbent Republican Gov. Matt Bevin by around 5,000 votes. Trump won Kentucky by 30 points in 2016, and both its senators are Republicans, with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell, one of Washington’s powerful Republicans.
In 2019, Bevin was the least popular governor in the country, according to Morning Consult, with a disapproval rating of 56%. Clayton noted Bevin had also gone to war with the teachers, who helped drive turnout to Beshear.
Beshear was faced with the pandemic less than four months after he became governor. He kept the state informed with daily news conferences and was widely praised. Kentucky was also struck by natural disasters — a deadly tornado in 2021 and devastating floods in 2022 — and Beshear showed up to address the aftermath. His frequent presence led many Kentuckians to refer to him as just “Andy,” Clayton said.
He has sought to emphasize working with Republicans throughout the campaign.
“I run as a proud Democrat, but you saw the moment I won, I took that hat off and I serve every single family because it’s time for us to recognize that a good job isn’t Democrat or Republican,” Beshear said Monday. “So, whether you’re a Democrat, Republican or independent, there is a place for you in this campaign.”
Who is Daniel Cameron?
Cameron, 37, came to office as the state’s first Black attorney general the same year as Beshear, in 2019. If he wins tonight, he will be the first Black Republican governor in the country since Reconstruction.
He’s an ally of McConnell and shepherded Supreme Court Justice Neil Gorsuch through his confirmation process. Cameron.
“A lot of people have generally underestimated McConnell and McConnell’s ability to sort of farm campaigns and as strategic enough to know where to put money and when,” Clayton said. “I would venture to say this race is tied because of McConnell and McConnell’s presence and the ground game that they have.”
Cameron’s ties to McConnell has helped him with establishment Republicans, and he also won Trump’s endorsement over a year before the election. Trump, who testified Monday in New York in a civil fraud case targeting him and his company, then held a tele-rally for Cameron.
What are the other major issues in the race?
In March 2020, a Black medical worker named Breonna Taylor was shot to death by police officers during a raid on her apartment while she was sleeping. Taylor’s boyfriend thought the Louisville Metro police officers were intruders, and fired his handgun at them. The officers fired 22 shots into the apartment in response, one of which struck and killed Taylor.
In September 2020, Cameron announced a grand jury had “agreed” not to charge the three officers involved, though One was charged with three counts of wanton endangerment for firing his gun outside of Taylor’s apartment and later acquitted.
The lack of charges made Louisville the epicenter of racial justice protests, and some grand jurors emerged to publicly disagree with Cameron’s description of the closed-door proceedings.
He defended his actions in a 2021 interview with the Associated Press, saying that prosecutors in his office had an obligation “to bring forward recommendations on which they think they can prove in front of a jury in a trial. That was what our prosecutors believed was appropriate.”
In 2022, U.S. Attorney General Merrick Garland brought civil rights charges against the four officers involved.
Earlier this year, Taylor’s mother, Tamika Palmer, endorsed a grassroots campaign to mobilize voters against Cameron in the race.
What time are the polls open in Kentucky?
The polls are open from 6 a.m. to 6 p.m. ET for the portions of the state on Eastern Standard Time, and 5 a.m. to 5 p.m. ET for the portions on Central Standard time. For a list of polling locations, go here.
Taurean Small contributed to this report.
