In 1995, when Mayawati, the leader of India’s Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) became Chief Minister of the country’s politically significant Uttar Pradesh state for the first time, the corridors of power in New Delhi were left stunned. Given Mayawati’s roots as a member of India’s historically ostracised Dalit community, then-Indian Prime Minister P.V. Narasimha Rao termed her a ‘miracle of democracy’.
Nearly three decades later, the rearranged corridors of power in Taipei City also bore witness to a miracle of democracy.
The elections in Taiwan on January 13 handed the pro-sovereignty Democratic Progressive Party a historic third consecutive presidential victory. Lai Ching-te (63), a Harvard-educated physician, is scheduled to succeed his party colleague and Taiwan’s two-term President Tsai Ing-wen in May 2024.
How exactly is Lai a ‘miracle of democracy’? You will get to know by the end of The Capitals this week.
Also watch | Taiwan Elections 2024: Lai Ching-Te wins Presidential election amid China threat
While DPP’s Lai Ching-te secured over 40 per cent votes, the Kuomintang (KMT) party’s Hou Yu-ih won about 33.5 per cent votes, followed by the Taiwan People’s Party’s Ko Wen-je who won 26.5 per cent vote share.
Why does it matter who is in charge of Taiwan?
On January 8, 2024, just five days before Lai Ching-te was elected president of the 36,193 sq km territory of Taiwan, he stood beside his running mate Hsiao Bi-khim. Speaking with foreign media, Lai said that “peace is priceless and war has no winners”.
DPP running mates Lai Ching-te and Hsiao Bi-khim on Jan 8, 2024 | X/@niccijsmith
China views Taiwan as its territory and has never renounced the use of force to take it one day. Separated from China by a narrow 180-kilometre (110-mile) strait, Taiwan produces around 90 per cent of the world’s leading-edge semiconductors, necessary for Artificial Intelligence and quantum computing.
Lai said that he is open to dialogue with China on equal terms and stressed that Beijing also has a responsibility to maintain the status quo in the Taiwan Strait.
Chinese leader Xi Jinping has dramatically increased the military activity around Taiwan in recent years and has threatened that the democratically-ruled island will “surely be reunified” with mainland China.
There is an essential link between Taiwan being a dominant semiconductor producer and the perpetual threat of war it faces from China.
Almost all electronic products – from refrigerators and microwaves to computers and smartphones – run on semiconductors. The national intelligence systems and military missiles all over the world are also essentially dependent on semiconductor chips.
Moreover, there is a global stake in stability in the region.
According to Chris Miller’s ‘Chip War: The Fight for the World’s Most Critical Technology’, the entire world economy hinges on peace in Taiwan.
China too is a net importer of semiconductor chips and Taiwan is its primary exporter. Over $47 billion worth of semiconductor chips were imported by China in 2023 alone (The United States is a top semiconductor importer from Taiwan).
A disruption to semiconductor production could have dramatic effects on the world economy, perhaps much more than the Covid pandemic or the Ukraine war, according to Miller. This explains Washington’s increased focus on Chinese activities in the Taiwan Strait and frequent assertiveness over the maintenance of the status quo between Taipei and Beijing.
While China’s claim over Taiwan predates the semiconductor boom by a few decades, analysts argue that China’s reliance on chips manufactured in Taiwan is so huge that it makes a full-blown attack on the self-ruled island less likely.
Whoever is in charge of Taiwan’s state of affairs in Taipei City effectively helms over the ‘new oil’ of the technology age that semiconductors are now known as.
Following the results of the January 13 elections, the Democratic Progressive Party’s Lai Ching-te will lead Taiwan, the self-ruled island critical to the global economy due to its dominance in chip production. The persistent threat of war from China, despite Beijing’s unavoidable stake in peace, is likely to complicate Lai’s presidential years.
Taiwan’s Lai Ching-te: The president-elect who rose from ashes
When Lai was two, his father reportedly died in an accident. Lai, along with his five siblings, was raised by his mother. A little later, a passing typhoon blew the roof of his home in the small hamlet of Wanli in Taiwan’s far north.
Instead of toys, Lai quite literally had trees to climb. He did not have privilege, and like all underdogs, he had to prove himself.
“One of the biggest assets my father left me was being impoverished,” Lai, former mayor of Taiwan’s southern city of Tainan, was quoted as saying by TIME magazine in October 2023.
“Because in this environment, I worked harder, more vigorously on everything I did. It gave me a sense of determination.”
Branded a “troublemaker” by Beijing for his pro-sovereignty views, Lai said in October 2023 that he is prepared to “welcome Chinese President Xi Jinping to Taiwan and prepare Taiwanese delicacies for him to try.”
There is something pertinent about democracies worldwide electing an underdog at different points in time in history: For instance, former US President Harry S Truman, son of a livestock dealer; Britain’s former Prime Minister Margaret Thatcher, daughter of a grocery shop owner; India’s Narendra Modi, son of a tea seller. All three have been hugely consequential not just for their respective countries but also for the rest of the world.
Over the weekend, Taiwan added Lai Ching-te to the list of self-made leaders — and thus a miracle of democracy — who turned the course of their lives to end up at the top of the leadership ladder.
While Lai credits his work ethic as having changed the course of his life, whether or not he will change of course of affairs vis-a-vis Taipei-Beijing ties, will be closely watched across the world during his presidential years.
