After a campaign marred by scandals and mudslinging, the country is set to elect its next president amid widespread voter discontent.
Published Updated
SEOUL — South Koreans go to the polls on Wednesday to elect their 20th president as the country faces deep anxiety over North Korea, bleak job opportunities, a housing crisis and growing generational divides.
Pre-election surveys have shown the two leading candidates — who are ideologically far apart — in an extremely tight race, and a clear winner may not emerge until well into the night. Here is what to know about this momentous election.
[Follow our live coverage of the South Korean presidential election]
The outgoing president, Moon Jae-in, cannot run again: South Korea’s leaders are limited to a single five-year term. Since the country was democratized in the late eighties, the government has regularly changed hands between the two main political forces that differ sharply over key policy issues, like how to deal with North Korea’s nuclear threat.
“The key point to watch in this election is whether the progressives will cede power after five years,” said Heo Jin-jae, a research director at Gallup Korea. “The biggest deciding factor is how voters assess the Moon administration’s performance. Over the past five years, the conservatives and progressives have drifted apart farther than ever.”
One of Mr. Moon’s signature policy ambitions was to build peace with the North through dialogue and cooperation. During his administration, he brokered the historic meetings between President Donald J. Trump and Kim Jong-un.
But those meetings did not lead to a deal on how to end North Korea’s nuclear program, and critics have blamed Mr. Moon for wasting precious diplomatic energy on what some call a misguided approach. For their part, conservatives would prefer a more confrontational policy toward North Korea.
There were 14 candidates in the election, meaning the winner is unlikely to get an outright majority. But the race, according to surveys, comes down to a contest between Lee Jae-myung from Mr. Moon’s Democratic Party and Yoon Suk-yeol from the conservative opposition People Power Party.
Mr. Lee, 57, started his public life as a human rights lawyer defending the working class. He then became a mayor and governor in Gyeonggi-do, a populous province surrounding Seoul, building a reputation by expanding social benefits for young, jobless citizens.
He has also styled himself as a firebrand who pulls no punches against his enemies. He once called past conservative leaders “pro-Japanese, dictatorial, traitorous, people-massacring forces.” His fans call him “carbonated cider,” referring approvingly to his acerbic delivery.
Mr. Yoon, 61, is an educators’ son who passed the bar on his ninth try. He eventually built a reputation as an anti-corruption prosecutor who didn’t flinch under political pressure while going after some of the country’s richest and most powerful people. His investigations helped imprison two former presidents, as well as the head of Samsung, on corruption charges.
Mr. Yoon served as prosecutor general under Mr. Moon. His political stock rose after he resigned last year and began criticizing Mr. Moon’s policies on everything from North Korea to housing prices. But he has occasionally blundered during TV debates, and some have described him as a political amateur.
Neither Mr. Lee nor Mr. Yoon has extensive experience in foreign policy. The fact that the two major parties selected political outsiders as their candidates reflected voter dissatisfaction with existing leadership.
Both Mr. Yoon and Mr. Lee have promised to supply millions of new homes if elected, acknowledging that housing affordability was one of the most pressing problems for South Koreans, especially for young voters. But they differ widely over how to address that and other economic challenges.
Mr. Lee favors a strong New Deal-like approach, including expanding welfare and universal basic income, controlling runaway real estate prices and driving growth through large-scale investment in digital and renewable-energy industries. Mr. Yoon prefers a smaller government, promoting market-led solutions and deregulation.
North Korea has also loomed large during the election, and the government has been on high alert for any new provocation. On Tuesday, a North Korean patrol boat briefly crossed a disputed western sea border but retreated when the South Korean Navy fired warning shots. On Saturday, the North launched a ballistic missile toward the sea off its east coast, its second missile test in a week.
Mr. Yoon champions a tougher stance on North Korea, calling for sanctions and rejuvenating joint military drills between South Korea and the United States. Mr. Lee emphasizes diplomacy that would continue Mr. Moon’s policy of building peace and reconciliation.
For the young South Koreans whose choice will most likely determine the election, economic uncertainty and inequality are the main issues. Mr. Yoon has been accused of appealing to anti-feminist sentiment, which is widespread among young male voters. Mr. Lee has tried to connect to young female voters, calling Mr. Yoon a “hate-mongering populist” who stoked gender conflict to win votes.
The voter turnout in presidential elections since 1992 has ranged from 63 percent to 81.8 percent. Polling experts say that the voter turnout this week will not diverge widely from the 77.2 percent recorded for the last presidential election, held in 2017.
A record 36.9 percent of the 44 million eligible voters already cast their ballots on Friday and Saturday, when the National Election Commission allowed early voting across the country.
This is South Korea’s first presidential election held during the coronavirus pandemic, and it takes place as the country is struggling with a surge of cases tied to the Omicron variant. All voters must wear masks. Officials will check body temperature, squirt sanitizer on hands and also hand out plastic gloves for voters to wear as they cast their ballots.
Lawmakers agreed in February to reserve a special hour for voters with Covid on Election Day.
By law, the results of any public opinion survey conducted within a week of the election cannot be publicized. According to earlier surveys, a small majority of South Koreans supported a change of government from progressives to conservatives. But that does not mean that Mr. Yoon is a clear favorite.
Mr. Yoon and Mr. Lee have been neck and neck in most surveys. During much of the campaign, policy discussions were often drowned out by fractious allegations of legal and moral misconduct by the two candidates and their families.
Mr. Lee’s detractors circulated audiotapes on YouTube in which the candidate unleashed a stream of profanities against his sister-in-law. Mr. Yoon’s critics shared pictures of him “manspreading” and social media links to audio files in which his wife said the police and prosecutors would go after journalists unfriendly to him if he became president.
In surveys, more people found the candidates disagreeable than agreeable. Some voters have called the election “a contest between the unlikable.” Hong Chae-yeong, a 30-year-old voter who is between jobs in Seoul, put it bluntly. “Yoon is ignorant. Lee is a lot of talk but untrustworthy,” she said. “This election is a choice of who is the lesser of two evils.”
