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The leak of Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito’s draft majority opinion, which sets the stage for the court to overturn Roe v. Wade and Planned Parenthood v. Casey, has done little to change which party Americans plan on voting for in November.
Forty-six percent of Americans prefer that Republicans take control of Congress following the midterm elections, tied with those that want to see Democrats remain in power, according to the results of an NBC News poll released Sunday.
President Joe Biden arrives with House Speaker Nancy Pelosi of Calif., and Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. (Bill Clark/Pool via AP)
The poll comes as speculation has turned to how the Supreme Court overruling Roe could impact this year’s elections, with many Democrats hoping that the issue would help push their voters to the polls in larger numbers.
But the results of the party preference number in the NBC News poll have remained virtually unchanged since last August, when 46% of respondents indicated a preference for Republicans compared to 47% who said they wanted Democrats in control. March’s poll delivered similar results, with 46% indicated they wanted Republicans in control compared to 44% who prefer Democrats. The slight two point boost for Democrats in May was within the poll’s 3.10% margin of error.
Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.
(Eric Lee/Bloomberg via Getty Images)
AMERICANS INCREASINGLY BELIEVE ACCEPTANCE OF TRANS IDENTITY HAS GONE TOO FAR: POLL
But the poll did find increased enthusiasm among Democratic voters, with those who have a “high level of interest” in November’s election rising from 50% in March to 61% in the latest poll, a possible sign that the leaked ruling could be bolstering the party’s enthusiasm. Republicans also saw a slight boost in enthusiasm, with 69% indicating a high level of interest in the latest poll compared to 67% in March.
Jeff Horwitt of Hart Research Associates, a Democratic pollster who conducted the poll along with Republican pollster Bill McInturff of Public Opinion Strategies, argued that it’s a positive sign for Democrats that enthusiasm is on the rise after the leaked ruling.
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People protest after the leak of a draft majority opinion written by Justice Samuel Alito.
“How [abortion] plays out in November is to be determined. but for now, it is injecting some much-needed enthusiasm into parts of the Democratic coalition,” Horwitt told NBC News.
But he also cautioned that the GOP may still have the inside track.
“It is remarkable that preference for control of Congress is even overall, and that the gap in interest in the election has narrowed,” Horwitt said.
“It is true that Democratic interest is up,” he continued, “but we can’t lose sight that Republicans still enjoy an advantage that augurs well for election success.”
