At some point in time, numbers in spreadsheets infected the baseball-viewing public.
As much as the sport’s Moneyball revolution changed the way the game is played – goodbye stolen bases, hello strikeouts – it changed how we absorb the sport. Our midsummer conversations turned from chewing out a shortstop for dogging it to first to examining whether his cost-controlled replacement could provide three-quarters of his value at two-thirds the price.
Heaven forbid our team re-sign that guy and get stuck with a hefty salary. How will it affect us four years from now?
That line of thinking has infected the discourse around MLB’s expanded playoffs. As you know by now, the Philadelphia Phillies won a paltry 87 games this season to claim the National League’s third wild card, which didn’t exist until this year.
While baseball’s top teams rested at home, the Phillies won back-to-back road games to dispose of the great St. Louis Cardinals. They’ve since been the hottest team in the league, scorching those that happened to get in their way – the Atlanta Braves and the San Diego Padres – en route to their eighth National League pennant and a trip to the World Series.
But many would have you think the Los Angeles Dodgers are the rightful National League champs by virtue of their 111-win regular season. Played 1,000 times on a computer, the Dodgers would win more pennants than the Phillies. Therefore, any other result should be chalked up to “randomness.”
To them, I say boo hoo. The easy solution? Win your games.
But beyond that, I’m still trying to figure out what makes regular-season excellence more deserving of recognition than postseason excellence.
Playoff baseball is the purest version of the sport. It’s a test of your best against their best. Individual statistics don’t matter. All that matters is winning today’s game.
PERSPECTIVE: Where does Harper’s homer rank among greatest Philadelphia pro sports moments?
That urgency is reflected in the fan experience. A single constitutes a rally. A called strike calls for a few more twirls of that towel. At any moment, a home run could bring you out of your seat. That is if you aren’t already standing.
These moments form baseball’s legends. You’ll never forget where you were when Jean Segura’s ground ball sneaked into the Busch Stadium outfield. When Rhys Hoskins spiked his bat to the core of the earth. When you waved J.T. Realmuto all the way home. And when the MVP sparked “bedlam at the bank,” as only Scott Franzke could put it.
If played 999 more times, none of those events would unfold the same way, which underscores the pressure, intensity and difficulty of postseason baseball. Call me crazy for wanting to reward the team that can come up big when playing the highest form of the sport.
Of course luck must play a role in every sports success story. The Phillies, for instance, are lucky that the NL this year added the designated hitter allowing Bryce Harper to stay in the lineup despite an elbow injury that limits his ability to throw.
They found a bit more luck when Padres manager Bob Melvin decided to keep lefty closer Josh Hader fresh for Monday’s game 6 (oops) instead of having him face Harper Sunday with a runner on in the eighth inning.
But Harper’s take on the 1-2 changeup down in the zone and his ensuing swing on the fastball he deposited to the bank’s left field bleachers wasn’t luck. It was a hitter who was locked in at the right time. A hitter, once dubbed baseball’s chosen one, whose team should be rewarded for his exceptional ability to regularly amaze in the biggest spots.
FOX Sports’ David Ortiz said Harper “had that look in his eye” before Sunday’s game. Most spreadsheets don’t have a row that.
At some point, what happens on the field has to be what matters. Billy Beane, the architect of the Moneyball Athletics, famously said “my shit doesn’t work in the playoffs.” That might be true and if so the Dodgers, who’ve leveled up the A’s numbers-focused approach with an owner willing to spend, should rethink their October attack plan.
As the Phillies stumbled into the regular season finish line, all of baseball knew they’d be dangerous if they could organize their pitching – Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola make for one of the sport’s best one-two punches. Harper hit all of three home runs since his return from a broken thumb Aug. 26, but you couldn’t shake the feeling he would deliver. The great ones always do.
It’s all actually gone according to plan, which is the most unusual thing about these playoffs for Phillies fans.
Their biggest test is yet to come. The Houston Astros won 106 games in the regular season. They have yet to lose in the playoffs. They combine excellent starting pitching, with a dominant bullpen and a strong offense. Those things tend to help you win a lot of baseball games.
If the Phillies beat them it will be because they rose to the occasion yet again and they deserve credit. If you don’t like it, beat them.
Contact Brandon Holveck at bholveck@delawareonline.com. Follow him on Twitter @holveck_brandon.
