The films and those who make the films (actors, actresses, producers, directors, etc.) are artists of the highest caliber. The Oscar show, however, is largely about statistics. From who wins to who watches, statistics tell us the story of the Academy Awards.
So what are those statistics telling us about the Oscars this year, and what have they told us about the recent history of the Oscars? Let’s talk about it.
Best actor: Will Smith is a clear favorite with north of an 80% chance of winning for his role in “King Richard.” Benedict Cumberbatch is really the only somewhat plausible nominee with a little bit more than a 10% chance of winning for his role in “The Power of the Dog.”
Best actress: Unlike in best actor, there are a number of plausible winners. Jessica Chastain has about a 60% chance of winning for her role in “The Eyes of Tammy Faye.” She’s followed by Nicole Kidman (“Being the Ricardos”) with just south of a 20% chance of winning, and Olivia Colman (“The Lost Daughters”) and Kristen Stewart (“Spencer”) with about a 10% chance of taking home the Oscar.
Best director: It would be quite surprising if Jane Campion doesn’t win here for “The Power of the Dog.” She has about a 90% chance of taking home the Oscar. If anyone scores a major upset, it will be Steven Spielberg (“West Side Story”) or Kenneth Branagh (“Belfast”), though both have less than 5% chance.
Best original screenplay and best adapted screenplay: Honestly, I don’t know who is going to win in either of these categories. “Licorice Pizza” and “Belfast” each have about a 40% chance in the best original screenplay category (with “Don’t Look Up” at about 15%). “CODA” is somewhat ahead (a little north of 50% chance) of “The Power of the Dog” (a little south of 40%) in the best adapted screenplay race.
Best picture: This is a two film race. It’s very likely either “The Power of the Dog” (a little more than a 50% chance of winning) or “CODA” (a little less than a 40%) who will take home the big prize this year.
No, really, which movie is going to win best picture
One of the best ways to know who is going to win in each category is to look at which films and actors have done best in other award shows so far this year. Some award shows do a better job of predicting the Oscars than others.
Hickey noted to me that “it’s never been harder to get a good understanding of the Oscar race from precursors given [how fast the Academy has expanded its membership. Still,] the Producers Guild has the best track record among the precursors.”
The Producers Guild has called seven of the last 10 best picture winners, with three of those in the last five years. This favors “CODA,” which is actually a slight underdog in the betting markets. Hickey pointed out to me, though, that “The Power of the Dog” won a lot of other big time awards, such as BAFTA, the Critics Choice Awards, Directors Guild and the Golden Globe for best drama film.
Put another way, Hickey told me “it’s going to come down right to the finish.”
One other nugget from Hickey, Chastain did win the Screen Actors Guild Award for best actress (making her the favorite). The “usually ridiculously predictive” BAFTA awards, however, didn’t actually nominate any of the Oscar nominees in this category.
The Oscars are becoming more diverse, though not always in the way you may think
I asked Hickey about this, who showed me that the statistics backed this up. For instance, there had been only seven Black women nominated for best actress before 2009. Since that point, there have been an equal number of Black women (seven) nominated in the category.
So it does seem the awards are becoming more diverse, though, to quote Hickey, it is “a matter of perspective” whether the film industry and the Oscars have rectified the lack of diversity enough.
One way in which the Academy is clearly trying to make amends for its past is by opening up its membership. Hickey told me “by my reckoning, more than half of the current Academy has been admitted since 2011, and the organization will likely settle in at around 10,000 members at some point in the next several years, up from a steady state of around 6,000 members.”
There probably aren’t going to be that many people watching
As recently as 2014, over 40 million people watched the Oscars. That had trended downward to 30 million for the show in 2019, but the coronavirus pandemic seemed to accelerate the decline further.
We’ll have to see if those advertisers get their money’s worth.
