Russia’s full-scale attack on Ukraine — which comes at a moment when Biden is already struggling domestically with rising inflation, a turbulent stock market and low approval ratings — poses an immense challenge, both in terms of policy and politics.
In the coming weeks, Americans will likely witness devastating images of human destruction in Ukraine. Sanctions, which Biden himself acknowledged would take time, could have limited success. As the conflict drags on, the President will inevitably face criticism over his handling of the situation.
And since partisan politics never really stops at the water’s edge, we should expect Republican attacks against Biden to accelerate as legislators keep an eye on the upcoming midterms.
Despite the pressure he will face, Biden must avoid acting out of his own political interest and remain focused on the best steps to sanction and isolate Russia without turning this into a broader military conflict.
In December 1979, Carter, who was already struggling with a flailing economy, an oil crisis and Americans being held hostage in Iran, learned that the Soviets invaded Afghanistan. Carter, who was astounded that the Soviets had launched the invasion, understood that this would kill any possibility for continuing détente — the policy that former President Richard Nixon pursued to establish friendlier relations with the communists and ease tensions around arms controls.
Carter also outlined a more aggressive posture in the Persian Gulf and decided that the United States would boycott the Moscow Olympics.
As the conflict progressed, however, Carter became bogged down by Afghanistan and the public increasingly perceived him as ineffectual and weak. Republicans blasted Carter as a failed president who was not defending the nation’s security.
In one of Reagan’s television spots, images of suffering children were broadcast along with a voiceover that stated: “Very slowly, a step at a time, the hope for world peace erodes. Slowly, we once slid into Korea — slowly into Vietnam. And now, the Persian Gulf beckons.” As a close-up of Carter’s face filled the screen, the voiceover continued: “Jimmy Carter’s weak, indecisive leadership has vacillated before events in Angola, Ethiopia and Afghanistan. Jimmy Carter still doesn’t know that it takes strong leadership to keep the peace. Weak leadership will lose it.”
In November 1980, the electorate delivered the presidency to Reagan, ushering in an era in which conservative politics reshaped the country.
For Biden, the political fallout of Ukraine could likewise pose a serious risk to his presidency. If this Russian assault on Ukraine continues for months and the humanitarian crisis turns out to be as bad as some expect, Biden’s inability to take stronger action could become a major liability going into the midterms and the 2024 election.
It will only be a matter of time before Republicans start reminding the public that a Democrat was in the White House both times Russia invaded Ukraine in the past decade.
Ultimately, these attacks should not guide Biden’s policy decisions or pressure the US into an extended and catastrophic war. If achieving peace and stability overseas requires sacrificing his own political future, that’s a tradeoff Biden should be willing to make.
And unlike Carter, Biden does not yet face a formidable political opponent hammering him for being ineffectual. Whereas Reagan condemned Carter for being too weak with Afghanistan, former President Donald Trump, the de facto head of the GOP, continues to praise Putin, calling his strategy in Ukraine “genius.”
Biden came to office promising to revitalize America’s international alliances that had been frayed during the Trump years. Now is the time to work through those alliances to pressure Putin to change course.
With a situation this fraught, true presidential leadership will require Biden to govern through thoughtful, evidence-based policies rather than the bombast that comes so easily at times like these.
This article has been updated to accurately reflect former President Donald’s Trump’s comments; he called Putin’s strategy in Ukraine “genius.”
