As we peer into the future of 2100, the landscape of nearly 30,000 cities in the United States may undergo substantial transformations. A recent study predicts that almost half of these cities will experience population decline, losing between 12 to 23 per cent of their residents by the century’s end.
These changes, influenced by both climate-driven natural forces and human responses, pose significant challenges that extend beyond city boundaries, according to ScienceAlert.
From sprawling to ageing communities
The study suggests that the cities of the future are more likely to witness shifts in population dynamics, evolving into fractured, thinning, or sprawling communities.
While outright abandonment is not the envisioned outcome, the researchers caution that unless local governments and town planners adapt to the evolving needs of residents, these transformations may lead to unprecedented challenges.
The anticipated decline in population raises concerns about the disruption of fundamental services such as transit, clean water, electricity, and internet access.
As cities shrink and populations age, the potential consequences include grocery store closures, resulting in food deserts, and neglected infrastructure in dwindling towns, leaving communities without essential resources, reminiscent of the water crisis in Jackson, Mississippi, in 2021.
Originally focusing on transportation challenges in Illinois, the researchers expanded their analysis to encompass all 50 states. Drawing from US census data and climate scenarios, the study paints a comprehensive picture of the potential future of cities, challenging the conventional focus on larger urban centres.
Currently, 43 per cent of US cities are losing residents, a figure that could rise to 64 per cent by 2100, depending on climate scenarios.
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Projections indicate that the Northeast and Midwest regions are likely to witness the most depopulating cities. Even states like Texas and Utah, currently experiencing growth, may encounter significant population loss in certain cities by 2100.
However, the analysis acknowledges the inherent uncertainty in estimating population trends decades ahead and does not delve into the complex factors driving these projections, such as economic and social influences or internal migration.
(With inputs from agencies)
