With just a few words and a slickly produced piece of military propaganda, the commander in chief of Ukraine’s armed forces ratcheted up speculation Saturday that a long-awaited counteroffensive could be imminent.
“The time has come to take back what is ours,” said the official, Gen. Valerii Zaluzhyni, sharing a clip of Ukrainian troops marching, training and apparently preparing for battle.
The video came online following weeks of speculation regarding when Ukraine would start its counteroffensive — or whether it might have already begun.
Despite its language, Zaluzhyni’s post made no explicit mention of an impending military operation, and there have been few details reported on the ground of specific build-ups of troops and weapons — though it should be noted that any such reporting would likely fall foul of Ukraine’s martial law restrictions.
Information wars: Both Russia and Ukraine have been known to engage in disinformation campaigns to confuse enemy forces.
Ukrainian officials are keeping details of the operation under wraps, including whether or not it has already begun. That is likely an attempt to confuse the Russian military.
There are also public relations factors at play. Declare the counteroffensive underway, and the clock ticks immediately for the first results. Avoid doing so, and any mounting losses Russia sustains are just considered part of normal frontline attrition.
Russia taking fire: The Ukrainian military has been spotted moving military hardware toward the front lines and carrying out attacks against Russian targets that could facilitate an offensive, including strikes on Thursday and Saturday in the Russian-occupied southern port city of Berdiansk.
The Kremlin said Saturday that, in the past 24 hours, its forces had shot down 12 Ukrainian drones flying over Donetsk, Luhansk and Zaporizhzhia, a trio of Ukrainian territories that are all part-occupied by Russian forces.
Also on Saturday, explosions hit the Russian-occupied city of Mariupol, and attacks on Russian soil killed one person in Belgorod, targeted a pipeline and killed a construction worker near the border, according to Russian authorities.
A senior US official confirmed to CNN earlier this month that Ukraine has begun conducting “shaping” operations, striking strategic targets to shape the battlefield in favor of Kyiv’s advancing forces. Shaping is a standard tactic used prior to major combined operations, but it can also be used simply to confuse the enemy.
