The battle for control of the House of Representatives could come down a few districts across the country.
Republicans currently hold 212 seats and need to win just six more, in addition to the seats they currently hold, to win the majority. The latest CBS News Battleground Tracker polling estimates suggest has Republicans favored to comfortably surpass that number.
Democrats currently hold 220 seats, and there are three vacancies: GOP Rep. Jackie Walorski, of Indiana, died in August, and Democratic Reps. Charlie Crist and Ted Deutch, both of Florida, resigned.
The party that wins the White House often loses seats in the midterms, and high inflation and concerns about the economy have been big factors in President Joe Biden’s low approval ratings.
Democrats are also facing a disadvantage because of the redistricting that occurred after the 2020 Census. Several heavily Republican states gained seats, while some heavily Democratic and battleground states lost a seat.
During the campaign season, Republicans focused on the economy, crime and immigration. Democrats were more scattered, touting abortion access and democratic values. But every Republican who challenged the 2020 election results in the House is likely to win reelection and only two of the 10 Republicans who voted to impeach former President Donald Trump remain on the ballot for the general election.
Local dynamics may also play an outsize role in determining who wins the majority. Republicans invested heavily in flipping three South Texas congressional districts that have long been Democratic mainstays.
Another seat Republicans are eyeing is California’s 47th Congressional District, home to Orange County. Democratic Rep. Katie Porter was first elected to represent the area in 2018, but the district has since been largely redrawn and now the Democratic star is locked in a fierce reelection battle with Republican Scott Baugh.
In Wisconsin’s 3rd District, Democrat Ron Kind is retiring, and Democrat Brad Plaff and Republican Derrick Van Orden are on the ballot to replace him. Trump has endorsed Van Orden, which may not be helpful in the swing district.
Democratic Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney, the head of Democrats’ campaign arm, is fighting for his seat in New York’s 17th Congressional District. He brought out heavy hitters such as Mr. Biden and former President Bill Clinton to campaign.
In one of the few districts where Republicans are on defense, Rep. David Valadao is one of only two Republicans who voted to impeach Trump who will be on the ballot this cycle. Valadao represents California’s 21st Congressional District but is running in the new 22nd District, which went for Mr. Biden by 13 points.
The first polls close Tuesday at 6 p.m. ET in parts of Indiana and Kentucky, and the final polls close at 1 a.m. ET in Alaska.
