Rep. Lauren Boebert, one of the Republican party’s biggest right-wing stars, is locked in a tight reelection battle with Adam Frisch, a Democrat from Aspen running as a “conservative businessman,” in Colorado’s 3rd Congressional District.
With 96% of the vote tallied, CBS News characterized the race as a toss-up, as Boebert held a slim lead Thursday afternoon. At one point on Wednesday, Frisch had led by just over 60 votes.
July polling from Keating Research, a Democratic firm, showed Boebert with a 49%-42% advantage, with 9% of likely voters undecided.
A poll from that same firm released on Election Day showed that unaffiliated voters’ support for Frisch had increased from an 8-point margin to a 25-point margin, according to Colorado Politics.
National election forecasters had considered the seat safely Republican. FiveThirtyEight’s modeling as of Nov. 1 gave Boebert a 97% chance of winning, while Frisch had just a 3% chance.
As of Thursday afternoon, CBS News estimates that control for the House of Representatives leans in favor of Republicans. CBS News estimated that the GOP will win at least 213 seats, compared to 206 for the Democrats, with 16 races still considered toss-ups. The close margin in the House means that every uncalled race matters in the battle to get to a majority of 218 seats.
Throughout the campaign, Frisch, a former city councilman, had downplayed his party affiliation in the conservative-leaning district, according to CBS News Colorado. Frisch had sought to compel Republicans tired of Boebert’s firebrand ways to cross party lines. Boebert, meanwhile, derisively portrayed Frisch as “Aspen Adam,” trying to paint him as an elite liberal.
Boebert, a loyalist to former President Donald Trump, frequently slings insults at the Democratic establishment and has embraced conspiracy theories. Frisch has called Boebert’s style of leading “angertainment.”
Boebert defeated five-term Republican Rep. Scott Tipton in the 2018 primary before winning the general election.
According to CBS News Colorado, the size of the 3rd District impacts the timing of results — the district covers 27 counties that stretch from the northwest corner of the state to the more centralized Pueblo County.
In Pueblo County, votes that were both submitted by mail and cast in person on Election Day are still being counted, according to CBS News Colorado. Pueblo county clerk Gilbert Ortiz said the elections office still has 1,800 in-person ballots, 5,000 mail ballots and 600 cured ballots to count. He said there could also be about 500 uniformed-overseas ballots to count in Pueblo County.
“We’re not sacrificing any accuracy for speed right now,” Ortiz told CBS News Colorado. “Which I’m sure is driving most people crazy, but it’s important for people to understand that we had a two-card ballot this election, so it basically takes twice the amount to count because we have another ballot. So that is part of what’s slowing us down.”
According to the National Association of Secretaries of State, a recount is triggered by law in Colorado if the margin of victory between the top two candidates in a race is less than or equal to 0.5%. If that ends up being the case, the Colorado Secretary of State would order a recount within 25 days.
