The similarities to the Eagles’ 2000 season are downright eerie.
Back then, the Eagles had a first-year starting quarterback in Donovan McNabb, who had gotten a handful of starts as a rookie the year before.
This season, the Eagles have a first-year starter at QB in Jalen Hurts, who also had a handful of starts as a rookie the year before.
The Eagles were 5-11 in McNabb’s rookie year with a placeholder quarterback in Doug Pederson. The Eagles were 4-11-1 in Hurts’ rookie year. The only difference is that Carson Wentz was supposed to be the Eagles’ franchise quarterback in 2020.
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Instead, Wentz had by far the worst season of his career, was benched for Hurts over the final 4½ games, then asked to be traded. The Eagles dealt him to the Indianapolis Colts in what turned out to be a first-round and third-round pick in return.
There are many more similarities.
The 2000 Eagles were coached by a young, first-time head coach in Andy Reid, while this year’s Eagles are coached by a young, first-time head coach in Nick Sirianni.
The only difference is that Reid was hired in 1999 and picked his quarterback in McNabb in the draft that spring. Reid then designed an offense to maximize McNabb’s unique talents as a passer and runner.
Sirianni inherited Hurts, the Eagles’ second-round pick in 2020, but he, too, designed an offense around Hurts’ unique talents as a passer and a runner.
It just took some time through the trials and tribulations of a 2-5 start.
“Early on where we were searching for who we were, what we wanted to do, how we wanted to do it,” Hurts said. “And now kind of fine-tuning some things, and we’ve gotten good at doing a lot of different things.”
There is another difference.
In 2000, McNabb was never questioned as the Eagles’ franchise quarterback, and this is a big difference from Hurts’ status.
For some – but not Eagles coaches and teammates – Hurts’ future is still a question even though Hurts led the Eagles to a 7-3 finish and an unexpected playoff berth. Technically, Hurts was 6-2 because he missed one game with an ankle injury, along with the season finale, because the Eagles had already clinched a playoff spot.
But McNabb did face those questions as a rookie. Many fans were upset that the Eagles didn’t pick running back Ricky Williams in the 1999 draft. That was especially true when McNabb didn’t make his first start until Week 9.
In that game, he went 8-for-21 passing for just 68 yards in the Eagles’ 33-7 loss to Carolina.
But here, too, there were similarities.
Both McNabb and Hurts are strong-willed, confident quarterbacks who aren’t afraid of the moment.
Hurts, for example, wasn’t about to glorify his Buccaneers counterpart in Tom Brady. Hurts was asked about his childhood memories of Brady, whose career began when Hurts was still a toddler.
He replied, simply: “I don’t remember.”
Oh, and there’s one more similarity between the 2000 Eagles and the 2021 Eagles: Their first-round opponent in the wildcard round was the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.
On Dec. 31, 2000, McNabb was 24-for-33 passing for 161 yards with two touchdowns – to Na Brown and tight end Jeff Thomason – and an interception. His passer rating was 90.6. McNabb also ran for a touchdown, gaining 32 yards on 8 carries.
The Eagles won 21-3.
Of course, it should be noted that the Bucs’ quarterback in that game was Shaun King, not Brady.
By the way, in 2000, Brady was a rookie quarterback in New England, picked in the sixth round in the draft. He was the third-string quarterback that year and got into one game. He threw three passes, completed one, for 6 yards.
Since then, Brady has thrown for an additional 96,963 yards, including playoffs, and won seven Super Bowls.
Who knew?
Prediction
Brady is the GOAT, and for good reason.
But there are several factors working in the Eagles’ favor that could lead to an upset.
For one, the Bucs won’t have star wide receivers Chris Godwin, who tore his ACL on Dec. 19, and Antonio Brown, who walked off the field against the Jets and was released a day later.
That leaves the Bucs’ passing attack similar to the Eagles with one star receiver and one star tight end – DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert for the Eagles, and Mike Evans and Rob Gronkowski for the Bucs.
The Eagles can neutralize Evans with cornerback Darius Slay, and putting bracket coverage on Gronkowski.
Sure, the Bucs are still more proven behind Evans and Gronkowski with receiver Breshad Perriman and tight ends Cameron Brate and O.J. Howard, compared with Eagles wide receivers Jalen Reagor and Quez Watkins.
But that’s not where the game will be won.
This is: the running game.
With only two dependable receivers for much of the season, the Eagles have thrived with their running game, leading the NFL and averaging 189 yards per game over the last 10, when they went 7-3.
In addition, Miles Sanders is returning after missing the last two games with a broken hand. Hurts has had another two weeks to heal his sprained ankle by not playing last week.
So the strategy, at least for the Eagles, will be easy – run the ball, control the clock and keep the Bucs offense off the field for long stretches.
That could be difficult against a Bucs defense that ranks third in the NFL in stopping the run, allowing just 92.5 yards per game. But really, it’s the Eagles’ only chance.
Another factor that should help the Eagles is that the weather forecast is calling for rain and wind gusts up to 40 mph. That could make it difficult, even for Brady, to thrive without two of his best receivers.
Does all of that make up for the Eagles’ relative lack of playoff experience compared with the defending Super Bowl champions? After all, Brady is playing in his 46th playoff game, and Hurts and Smith are in their first.
Or the fact that Brady picked apart the Eagles’ defense in the first meeting, completing 81% of his passes.
Or the fact that the Eagles are 0-6 this season against playoff teams, and have only one win against a team with a winning record, the 9-8 Saints?
Smith, for one, says none of that matters now.
Smith and Hurts have played for the national championship while at Alabama. Hurts was the quarterback as a true freshman when Alabama lost on a last-second touchdown.
The next year, Smith, as a true freshman, scored the game-winning TD in overtime.
In addition, the Eagles still have 10 players who were on the 2017 Super Bowl team.
“You gotta know what’s at stake,” Smith said about a playoff game. “It’s win or go home. That’s kind of the main thing. It comes down to what we do as a football team. It’s not about them. It’s just how we execute our game plan, and how we do our techniques and the fundamentals of things.”
For one game, that might just be enough.
Score: Eagles 27, Bucs 24.
Contact Martin Frank at mfrank@delawareonline.com. Follow on Twitter @Mfranknfl.
