India continues to face the threat of an armed conflict with China and Pakistan, according to an annual threat assessment by the US Intelligence. The report, however, does not delve into the threat of a potential two-front conflict with China and Pakistan.
On a potential India-China conflict
The US intelligence assessment stated that the shared disputed border between India and China will remain a strain on their bilateral relationship.
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“While the two sides have not engaged in significant cross-border clashes since 2020, they are maintaining large troop deployments, and sporadic encounters between opposing forces risk miscalculation and escalation into armed conflict,” it noted.
On India-Pakistan ties
The assessment added that New Delhi and Islamabad are “inclined to sustain the current fragile calm in their relationship following their renewal of a ceasefire along the Line of Control in early 2021”.
It further noted that neither side has used the period of calm to rebuild their bilateral ties.
Since the Pulwama attack of February 2019 and consequent Balakot airstrikes in which Indian forces struck terrorist bases deep inside Pakistan, New Delhi has maintained a policy of bilateral indifference with minimal exchange, and that too due to compulsions of multilateral platforms.
“Pakistan’s long history of supporting anti-India militant groups and India’s increased willingness, under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi, to respond with military force to perceived or real Pakistani provocations raise the risk of escalation during a crisis,” the US Intelligence Assessment added.
“There remains the potential for an event to trigger a rapid escalation,” it noted, indicating that despite a fragile calm at the Line of Control between India and Pakistan, any form of export of terrorism from across the border is capable of triggering an escalation of hostilities between the two sides.
(With inputs from agencies)
