The Net Zero Tracker, an independent data consortium, released a report on Monday, which disclosed that majority of national net zero targets, covering 88 per cent of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, lack crucial plans for the phase-out of fossil fuels.
Despite the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) Net Zero Roadmap urging a cessation of new fossil fuel projects, only 13 per cent of countries with net zero targets have committed to phase-out plans related to coal, oil, or gas.
The report warns that without urgent action, the proliferation of net-zero ambitions without corresponding fossil fuel phase-out commitments could undermine the Paris Agreement’s temperature goals.
Natasha Lutz, Co-Data Lead at Net Zero Tracker from University of Oxford, emphasised the importance of commitment at the country level, stating, “A lack of commitment leaves the door open for fossil fuel expansion and is inconsistent with achieving the temperature goals set out by the Paris Agreement.”
Professor Thomas Hale from the Blavatnik School of Government, University of Oxford, likened a net-zero plan without clear fossil fuel phase-out measures to a “fad diet that lets you eat as much grease as you like”.
Leaders urged to take urgent action at COP28
The Net Zero Tracker has urged COP28 leaders to work towards ending new exploration by oil and gas-producing countries and companies.
The report highlights a stark contradiction between global net zero targets and the lack of phase-out plans, hindering the transition to clean energy as outlined in the IEA’s Net Zero pathway.
Camilla Hyslop, Co-Data Lead at Net Zero Tracker, emphasised the need for timelines to halt “dirty energy”, cautioning that without clear deadlines, the expansion of fossil fuels could continue and risk “environmental collapse”.
Emerging leaders in the fossil-free future
Despite the overall deficiency in country-level phase-out plans, the study identifies a group of companies, cities, states, and regions emerging as leaders in the transition to a fossil-free future. Notably, 56 per cent of publicly listed companies engaged in coal production have committed to a full or partial coal production phase-out, reflecting a positive trend in the industry.
The report suggests that these leaders are crucial in steering the world towards a cleaner energy future. Momentum is particularly evident in plans to phase-out coal exploration, even though only 2 per cent of global coal production is currently covered by a full phase-out pledge.
Global decarbonisation race – Europe leads, North America falls behind
The impact of fossil fuel phase-out plans on the global race to decarbonise is significant. Europe leads the way, with over 27 per cent of companies with net zero targets setting phase-out targets, aligning with the EU Parliament’s demand for a fossil fuel non-proliferation treaty.
In contrast, only 9 per cent of North American companies with net zero targets have any fossil fuel phase-out commitments, contradicting the legally binding 2050 net-zero commitments in the United States and Canada.
The Fossil Fuel Non-Proliferation Treaty Initiative emphasises the importance of halting new fossil fuel development and managing an equitable phase-out to complement the Paris Agreement. Colombia recently became the tenth country to join the initiative, backed by global organizations, including the European Parliament and the WHO.
Leading by example – Spain, Ørsted, and Stockholm
The Net Zero Tracker study recommends countries and companies to look at examples of emerging good practice. Spain has enacted laws to phase out fossil fuels by 2043, Ørsted, a once fossil-fuel-reliant energy utility, aims to phase out coal completely by 2024. Stockholm is also leading the way, targeting a fossil-free status by 2040, with a focus on phasing out oil and gas.
