While Delaware residents are reveling in some milder weather in between stretches of summer heat, the editors of one almanac say the northeast should prepare for a snowy winter.
“Folks living along the I-95 corridor from Washington to Boston, who saw a lack of wintry precipitation last winter, should experience quite the opposite, with lots of rain/sleet and snowstorms to contend with,” reported the Farmers’ Almanac in a press release.
Every year since 1818, the almanac, based in Lewiston, Maine, has provided an extended weather forecast to help people plan ahead. The 2024 issue, delivered to stores this month, is warning readers: “The ‘brrr’ is coming back.”
Editor Pete Geiger said, “After a weird and warm winter season last year, this winter should make cold weather fans rejoice, especially those in the Great Lakes, Midwest and northern New England areas.”
The almanac predicts storms could affect the East Coast several times this winter:
- “The second week of January will be stormy, snowy, and wet for both the Pacific Coast and the Eastern States.”
- “An East Coast storm affecting the Northeast and New England states will bring snowfall, cold rain and then frigid temperatures, during the second week of February.”
- “Another East Coast storm will bring a wintry mess to this area during the first week of March.”
How accurate are the predictions?
Last year, the almanac said the winter forecast “might send people in the Great Lakes areas, Northeast and North Central regions hibernating.” The worst chills were predicted for the North Central states.
The almanac predicted a stormy winter, “especially for the eastern half of the country. For some areas this may mean snow, but for others it will result in more slush and mush.”
Most of Delaware barely received any snow.
Report from last winter:Where’s the snow? Forecasters let us know if Delaware will see any snow this winter.
But that was an unusual year, looking back on weather data.
“Longtime fans…who follow our weather predictions claim they are accurate approximately 80% to 85% of the time,” according to the almanac’s website.
The forecasts are based on a mathematical and astronomical formula, using sunspot activity, tidal action, the position of the planet and other factors.
Managing editor Sandi Duncan said phenomena such as El Niño and La Niña – climate patterns in the Pacific Ocean that affect the jet stream – also are used in the predictions.
The almanac’s outlook for winter 2023-2024 includes a nod to El Niño strengthening, which should result in more moisture and storms in the southern areas of the country, Duncan said.
The University of Illinois studied the forecasts of another publication, the Old Farmer’s Almanac, and said the accuracy of such long-range predictions is closer to a coin toss.
Professor emeritus John Walsh in the university’s Department of Atmospheric Sciences examined forecasts of monthly temperatures and precipitation of the Old Farmer’s Almanac by comparing them to the actual weather data over a 5-year period.
“Results of this study found that 51.9% of the monthly precipitation forecasts and 50.7% of the monthly temperature forecasts were accurate, concluding that these percentages are similar to the 50% success rate expected by chance,” according to the University of Illinois extension service website.
Delaware weather news:After record-low precipitation levels this spring, Delaware’s drought status has rebounded
More than weather, there are home and garden ideas and advice
While forecasts grab headlines, the Farmers’ Almanac, in print and online, features tons of topics, trivia and tips that provide strategies to save money, solutions for greener gardens and lifestyles, and calendars that help readers know the best time to fish, brew beer and plant tomatoes.
“In this day and age of busy lifestyles and high tech gadgets, it’s important to have a publication that reminds us of what life used to be, should be and can still be,” said Duncan.
The editors said the almanac has always been focused on the environment and conservation and was the authority on hacks, sustainability and living green “long before those words became trendy.”
Reach reporter Ben Mace at rmace@gannett.com.
