CNN
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A clash of two seasons is afoot as an early winter blast meets record autumn warmth, leading to a robust severe storm system in the South and creating the biggest tornado threat the US has seen in nearly 5 months.
“Several tornadoes are possible over far southeast Oklahoma and eastern Texas,” the Storm Prediction Center warned in its Friday severe weather outlook, adding “a strong tornado or two may occur from late afternoon into early evening.”
The Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an enhanced risk – Level 3 of 5 – area of severe thunderstorms on Friday for eastern Texas, southeastern Oklahoma, southwestern Arkansas and northwestern Louisiana. Dallas, Fort Worth, Austin and Arlington, Texas are included in this threat area.
“The most likely area for strong tornadoes [EF2 or higher] will be from far southeast Oklahoma southward into eastern Texas, to the east of the I-35 corridor,” the prediction center said.
The main threat will shift from tornadoes Friday afternoon and evening to damaging winds going into the overnight hours as thunderstorms align and spread into Arkansas and Louisiana.
This storm system will be moving quickly from west to east, which will minimize the chance for flash flooding to occur across the Ark-La-Tex region. Farther north, rainfall of one to four inches is expected through Saturday over a broad area from Kansas to Wisconsin.
Rainfall is much needed in this region as recent drought has cause the Mississippi River to reach record low levels, impacting shipping and the supply chain.
In all, 37 million people from Missouri and Kansas southward to Texas and Louisiana are at risk of severe storms Friday. Houston, San Antonio, Oklahoma City, Little Rock, Kansas City and Wichita are included in the risk areas as well.
The last time the greater Dallas-Fort Worth area was under an enhanced risk or higher was May 24.
While tornadoes in the US can happen in any month of the year, they are most common in the spring time thanks to the clash of cold and hot air as the seasons change. The same merging of temperatures also occurs in the autumn, which is why you will often see a secondary “severe season” later in the year.
“You can see that while the spring months are our busiest time climatologically, there is a secondary increase in tornado activity in November,” the National Weather Service in New Orleans said.
Texas sees the most tornadoes (7) in the month of November on average, followed by Alabama (6), Louisiana (5), and Mississippi (5).
The time of day when a tornado occurs makes a big difference in the fatality rate. Nocturnal tornadoes are more dangerous because many people are asleep and unaware they need to be seeking a safe location. While the greater tornado threat for this particular event exists during the daytime hours, there is still the possibility for a few rotating storms through the evening hours.
Make sure you have your severe weather safety plan ready to go before bad weather hits. Know where you will go if severe weather hits, and make sure flashlights work and cell phones are fully charged in case you lose power.
“One of the most important features of your severe weather safety plans is to have a reliable means to receive severe weather warnings,” the weather service in New Orleans said.
