Almost a decade was spent by Wagner’s slain chief Yevgeny Prigozhin to build the mercenary group. The group emerged as the central force in Russia’s war against Ukraine and the troops of Prigozhin worked towards spreading influence of Moscow across the globe and gathering President Vladimir Putin’s allies in Syria and Africa.
Prigozhin’s sudden death in a plane crash has now triggered multiple speculations about the dangling future of the group. But let’s understand the journey taken by the Wagner group so far.
Prigozhin – a prison convict turned into a hot dog joint owner
Before the Wagner stint, Prigozhin – who was born in Leningrad, USSR (now St Petersburg, Russia) on 1 June 1961 – was one of the most influential and richest businessmen in Russia.
However, before soaring the heights, he spent almost 13 years in prison after getting implicated in various robbery cases in the early 1980s. He was released in 1990 when the Soviet Union was on the verge of collapse.
Once out of prison, Prigozhin started his business of selling hot dogs in St. Petersburg. As per the Guardian, in no time, Prigozhin had his hands in various ventures, from supermarkets to restaurants.
In 1995, he finally set up a network of catering companies and restaurants, which included St. Petersburg’s well-known company called Concord Catering. Soon after, Prigozhin entered the list of one of the country’s wealthiest individuals.
With the growing business, Prigozhin’s proximity with the Russian ruling class also increased. Prigozhin became the caterer of choice for the rich and powerful in Russia by the time Vladimir Putin came to power.
Prigozhin became the one who provided catering when Putin hosted some important world leaders like Prince Charles and George Bush. The caterer and the Russian leader soon developed a friendship that changed the shape of world politics, before they turned into foes.
Rise and rise of Wagner group
It remained unclear who decided to form the Wagner Group – Putin or Prigozhin. However, the group was formed during Russia’s invasion of Crimea in 2014. Wagner Group and Russia’s armed forces co-ordinated with each other but maintained their distance as recently as 2022.
As private armies remained officially banned in Russia, Wagner Group troops operated with impunity during Crimea’s 2014 invasion. After Crimea was captured, Wagner’s private military contractors (PMCs) went to Donbas in Eastern Ukraine and assisted pro-Russian separatist forces of the self-declared Luhansk and Donetsk from 2014 to 2015.
In no time, Wagner became Putin’s proxy army, getting their hands dirty in regions where Russia wanted to step in but officially could not. Prigozhin led this proxy army as a general.
In 2015, Prigozhin sent his Wagner troops to Syria when Russia intervened militarily in the country to support Bashar al-Assad amid the civil war. Wagner chief also got food and supplies. In Syria, Wagner saw itself engaged in some of the most intense fighting and for the first faced accusations of war crime.
Slowly, Wagner Group was involved in every other conflict where Russia played a role, from civil wars in Libya and Sudan to Venezuela.
Invasion of Ukraine and Prigozhin’s fallout with Putin
When Russia invaded Ukraine in 2022, the involvement of Prigozhin and his Wagner Group in the escalation was out in the open. Prigozhin also became an active recruiter and recruited convicts to fight the war. The group saw a sudden expansion with a surge of convict fighters. The group engaged in some of the heaviest fighting of the conflict and faced massive casualties.
Wagner Group achieved success in May when it seized Bakhmut, an eastern Ukrainian city of Bakhmut, at the end of some of the most brutal fighting. After the city was captured, Prigozhin called out the alleged treachery of in top brass of Putin, emphasising Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu and Chief of the General Staff Valery Gerasimov.
He continued criticising the military leadership of Russia for failing to care about his troops and using the fighters as cannon fodder. The brewing tensions soon resulted in the armed mutiny of the Wagner group on June 24. However, before his men could reach Moscow, Prigozhin asked them to stop as Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko announced that he had negotiated a deal with Prigozhin. The Kremlin then announced that Prigozhin would shift to Belarus and won’t face prosecution.
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Wagner’s dead leader and a question mark over empty seat
In a sudden development, just two days before it was reported that Prigozhin had apparently died in an Embraer jet crash in the north-west of Moscow, along with other nine passengers and crew onboard. A day later, his death was confirmed by Putin himself.
Now with the death of Prigozhin, the complex commercial and military operations planned by the chief and the group across Africa, the Middle East and Europe hang in the balance. The operations of Wagner Group were already rolled up in Syria by Putin.
After the mutiny, the forces of Wagner deployed in Ukraine gave a base to the regular military of Russia and started relocating to an army camp in Belarus. The group is likely to stay more or less intact in Africa under new management and can be taken over by another Russian mercenary group.
As per analysts, Wagner Group is not likely to go through much changes in countries where Wagner was operating through an official agreement with Moscow. CAR President Faustin-Archange Touadera’s political adviser Fidele Gouandjika said that since Wagner troops were present in the country through a state-level agreement with Russia, “nothing will affect the presence of these instructors”. Prigozhin is “a dead leader, we can replace him” Gouandjika stated.
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