US President Joe Biden and his South Korean counterpart Yoon Suk Yeol om Wednesday (April 27) announced a key agreement that underlined, once again, US support for South Korea. With nuclear-armed North Korea in mind, the two nations appeared to come closer as they have on number of occasions in past decades after the Korean war. Is this is a start of a new chapter in politics in the Korean peninsula? With reaffirming its support to South Korea, has US done something that threatens peace? Or will the agreement deter North Korea from its sabre-rattling? Let’s take a look.
What is US-South Korea agreement about?
The agreement between the US and South Korea is being called ‘Washington Declaration’. The agreement was made during South Korean Yoon Suk Yeol’s state visit to Washington.
So what is this ‘Washington Declaration’?
In short, the declaration boosts US nuclear umbrella over South Korea. Despite being a neighbour and an antagonist of nuclear-armed North Korea, the South does not have its own nuclear weapons.
On Wednesday, Biden said: “A nuclear attack by North Korea against the United States or its allies and partners is unacceptable and will result in the end of whatever regime were to take such an action.”
Washington Declaration provides for regular deployment of a US nuclear submarine to South Korea. This is historic as deployment of a US nuclear submarine hasn’t happened in South Korea since 1980s.
In return, South Korea has renewed its pledge that it will not develop nuclear weapons of its own.
However, there are no plans to station US tactical nuclear weapons in South Korea.
Additionally, the Washington Declaration paves way to give South Korea greater insight and a voice in United States’ nuclear planning with respect to containing North Korean moves. Both sides will form Nuclear Consultative Group to exchange information about America’s nuclear planning.
The situation with North Korea
Kim Jong Un-led North Korea has stuck to its sabre-rattling like it has done in the past. The severely impoverished country has spent a major chunk of it on development of missiles and even its nuclear weapons program.
According to information available in the public domain, North Korea launched around 90 missiles in the year 2022 alone. The number exceeds previous peak in 2017. In that year, North Korea had launched 25 missiles.
In 2023, North Korea began firing missiles in February and the launches have continued in subsequent months.
Each of these missile launches have caused alarm in South Korea and the maxima reached in the year 2022 has caused concern among the South Korean public especially.
Mood of South Korean public
Continuous missile tests from North Korea is gradually making South Korean people opine that their country should develop own nuclear weapons and reduce dependence on the US for its nuclear protection. The United States is opposed to South Korea developing own nuclear weapons.
People who want South Korea to develop own nuclear weapons include group of increasingly vocal and influential academics, scientists and even members of South Korea’s ruling party.
Another worry among the South Koreans is about a regime change in the US. They fear that if an isolationist leader like former president Donald Trump assumes power again, the defence assistance and cooperation from the US may dwindle.
There is already a precedent for this. Trump spoke of need for South Korea to cough up billions of dollars for US forces involved in defending the country. Biden, when he took office, promptly corrected the course of US policy.
Another example of US abandoning an international treaty involves Iran nuclear deal. Former US president Barack Obama spent great political weight to strike a nuclear deal with Iran. Trump took the US out of the deal during his time in office.
Another worry among South Koreans appears to be a softened US stance towards North Korea. As North Korean missiles have grown in sophistication and range they can reach US mainland and major cities. Will this factor deter US from taking a hard stance while dealing with North Korea? People in South Korea are wary, as reported in several media reports.
Is US-South Korea nuclear weapons deal going to silence wagging tongues?
“One thing was clear: there was an implied agreement that Seoul would not go nuclear,” said Soo Kim, Policy Practice Area Lead at LMI Consulting and a former CIA analyst. Soo Kim was quoted by AFP.
“Seoul’s nuclear ambitions have been capped.”
Gi-Wook Shin, a Korea expert and sociology professor at Stanford University, told AFP that the declaration was “a step forward”.
“I don’t think this will be enough to appease a South Korean public that has increasingly demanded that Seoul develop nuclear weapons of its own,” Shin said.
Effect on equations in Korean peninsula
China, the biggest backer of North Korea has not been pleased after US-South Korea agreement. It has warned US against “deliberately stirring up tensions, provoking confrontation and playing up threats”.
China is at odds with the US over number of issues in this part of the world. Both the countries have repeatedly exchanged heated words over Taiwan and South China Sea.
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