Explained | What is likely to happen if US government shutdown on October 1?


The chances of a government shutdown in the United States are increasing with each passing day as lawmakers have not reached a deal yet for extending funding beyond the critical deadline at the end of the month.

The government services in the country are likely to get disrupted and thousands of federal workers would go without pay if Congress is not able to provide funding for the fiscal year which starts on October 1. Workers who have been deemed “essential” will remain without pay but won’t lose their jobs.

The shutdown plans have not been updated by many government agencies as they had prepared in the past.

What triggers a government shutdown?

On the midnight of September 30 government funding expires and the new fiscal year starts on October 1.

If no legislation is passed by Congress for renewal of the funding by the deadline, then the federal government will have to shutdown at midnight.

Since the shutdown is likely to happen at the weekend, its impact will not be seen till the work week starts on Monday.

How will the shutdown impact the country?

If the shutdown takes place, many government operations are likely to get halted but few services deemed “essential” will continue. The two million military personnel in the United States will continue at their post, however, around half of the 800,000 civilian employees of the Pentagon would be furloughed.

The contracts which were finalised before the shutdown will continue, and new orders for supplies or services can be placed by the Pentagon to protect national security.

The Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration will maintain the nuclear weapons. As per the 2021 contingency plan of the Justice Department, agents at the FBI, the Drug Enforcement Administration (DEA) and federal law enforcement agencies will continue working along with prison staffers.

All the criminal prosecutions, which include the two federal cases against former President Donald Trump, will also continue. The court will postpone most civil litigation.

Border Patrol and immigration enforcement agents along with customs officers will continue to work as per the 2022 plan of the Department of Homeland Security. The consumer-protection workers of the Federal Trade Commission will be furloughed.

The federal courts are likely to have enough money to continue working till October 13. The Supreme Court will also continue working. Air traffic control workers and airport security screeners will continue working.

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US embassies and consulates are likely to function as per the 2022 shutdown plan of the State Department. Passport and visa processing will also continue till sufficient fees are available to cover operations.

Most of the staff of agencies like the National Institutes of Health, the National Science Foundation and the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) are likely to be furloughed.

However, the International Space Station will continue to get support from the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and the agency will also continue tracking satellites, however, they will furlough 17,000 of its 18,300 employees.

The disease outbreaks will continue to be monitored by the Centres for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) although other public health activities may suffer as they are likely to furlough more than half of the agency’s workers.

Most of the staff of the National Institutes of Health will be furloughed and new clinical trials for medical treatments will be delayed.

Why is the US headed for a shutdown?

Currently, there has been a deep divide between the House and Senate which is making it difficult to reach a consensus on full-year spending legislation. The conservative hardliners of the House have been calling for deep spending cuts and controversial policy add-ons, which has been rejected by Democrats as well as some Republicans.

As the funding deadline nears, top lawmakers from the two parties are hoping to clear a short-term funding extension, which is known as a continuing resolution or CR for short in Capitol Hill. The government frequently uses these short-term measures as a stopgap solution to avoid a shutdown and get more time to reach a broader full-year funding deal.

However, it is still not clear if Congress will have enough consensus to pass a short-term funding bill from both chambers before the end of the month as House conservatives continue to protest against the possibility of a stopgap bill and have issued a threat to vote against one while continuing their demand of major policy concessions which have no chance of getting passed in the Senate.

(With inputs from agencies)

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