On January 31, India abstained from the United Nations Security Council vote on Ukraine.
Ten states, namely the US, UK, France, UAE, Ghana, Albania, Norway, Brazil, Mexico and Ireland, voted in favour of taking up the Ukraine issue.
On the other hand, only Russia and China voted against it. Whereas three member states —India, Gabon and Kenya skipped.
Giving reasons, India’s permanent representative to UNSC, TS Tirumurti said, “India’s interest is in finding a solution that can provide for immediate de-escalation of tensions taking into account the legitimate security interests of all countries and aimed towards securing long term peace and stability in the region and beyond. We have also been in touch with all concerned parties. It is our considered view that the issue can only be resolved through diplomatic dialogue.”
The abstention and the emphasis of the envoy on the “legitimate security interests of all countries” is being seen as a repeat of 2014, when in the aftermath of Russia’s annexation of Crimea from Ukraine, India had abstained from a resolution backed by Ukraine, the U.S. and the E.U. that sought to criticise Russia’s actions in a vote at the General Assembly in March, 2014.
Many analysts, especially from the West, at that time and even now termed India as a “fence-sitter”, meaning that India is not committed to the issue.
However, India’s move was rather well-calculated and thought-out. It was actually engaging “both sides of the fence”, trying to balance its ties with Moscow and Washington.
For India, the Ukraine crisis is one of the biggest foreign policy issues, potential to have massive ramifications politically and economically.
There are probably three reasons why.
Military equations.
Moscow makes up about half of India’s total weapons import. India needs Russia to service its arms, and also for joint products, like the Brahmos missile.
Hence, abandoning Russia is not an option for New Delhi. And at the same time, siding with Russia could incur American sanctions, i.e., CAATSA (The Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act).
The Biden administration is in the process of making a decision on whether to sanction India for its purchase of the S-400 Russian missile systems or to process a waiver, given the close India-U.S. defence ties.
If New Delhi openly sides with Russia, then Biden may reconsider imposing sanctions.
China factor
In recent years, China has become the biggest threat for India—openly acknowledged by Indian Army chief MM Naravane.
Hence, India needs both Russia and US to counter China.
America is China’s rival while Russia is an ally. One brings deterrence, whereas the other brings leverage.
Russia could be effective in tempering China’s aggression and America, on the other hand, will undermine its designs.
So, it’s a win-win for India. But that advantage disappears if India picks a side.
Economic fallout
The India-Russia bilateral trade is worth $8 billion, while the India-Ukraine trade is worth around only $2.7 billion.
If a war breaks out, supply chains are going to be disruptive. And the one product that will worry India is oil, both as a fuel and cooking oil.
Last year, India bought 1.8 million tonnes of sunflower oil and 74 per cent of that came from Ukraine. So, if a war breaks out cooking oil may become more expensive.
India is already preparing for this eventuality and new markets are being explored, like Brazil and Argentina.
Then comes the petroleum. Brent crude has already breached the 90$-mark, which the possibility to reach even the $100-mark.
Russia makes up around 20 per cent of the global supply of natural gas. If Ukraine is attacked, the prices of natural gas is going to skyrocket
And this could disrupt India’s energy plans. So, India has a lot at stake in this conflict.
(With inputs from agencies)
