Explained | Global CO2 emissions due to fossil fuels hit new record. Will world leaders at COP28 act now?

While world leaders from nearly 200 countries are debating the course of action on fossil fuels at the United Nations climate summit COP28 in Dubai, a team of scientists, on Tuesday (Dec 5) released a report saying that global carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels are set to hit a record high in 2023. 

The fate of oil, gas and coal – the burning of which leads to emissions of planet-warming gases – hangs in balance as the issue has become a point of contention at the climate summit which is currently being hosted by oil-rich United Arab Emirates (UAE). 

Emirati President of COP28 Sultan Al Jaber, who is also head of UAE national oil company ADNOC recently landed in hot water over his remarks about fossil fuels and their contribution to global warming. 

A report by the Guardian said that he claimed there is “no science” indicating that a phase-out of fossil fuels is needed to restrict global heating to 1.5 degree Celsius threshold.

On Tuesday (Dec 5), the UN released the latest draft of a global climate agreement which presented three options to tackle fossil fuels which ranged from phasing them out to not talking about it at all. 

The latest draft is the second version of the negotiating document and sets the stage for the possible outcomes of the talks where nearly 200 nations will try to reach a consensus on a plan to take measures to curb the rising global temperatures. 

The first option in the 24-page draft is “an orderly and just phase out of fossil fuels,” the toughest stance and seen as essential for low-lying island nations that are at risk from rising sea levels. 

The second called for “accelerating efforts towards phasing out unabated fossil fuels,” which includes steps like phase-out of projects that lack the means to capture and store emissions and call for “rapid” reduction of fossil fuel use to achieve carbon neutrality in global energy production by 2050. 

The third option would be no mention of a fossil fuel phase-out, a position reportedly supported by oil giant Saudi Arabia and China. On the other hand, the United States, the European Union’s 27 nations, and climate-vulnerable small island states are pushing for a fossil fuel phase-out. 

Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman told Bloomberg that Riyadh – the world’s biggest oil exporter – would not agree to a “phasedown/out” of fossil fuels.

“Absolutely not,” he told the American media in Riyadh, adding, “I assure you not a single person – I’m talking about governments – believes in that.”

Notably, a previous draft of the document had only mentioned the options of a “phase-out” or a weaker “phase-down”. A phase-out would help reduce carbon dioxide emissions which scientists say are needed to avert the disastrous impact of climate change. 

The second draft also included the option of a “rapid phase-out of unabated coal power this decade” and an immediate halt to building new carbon dioxide-emitting coal power plants.

An “unabated” power plant refers to one that does not capture the plant’s carbon dioxide emissions before they hit the atmosphere. 

There is a high chance that the 200 countries may not reach a consensus at the climate summit which is being held during what is widely expected to be the hottest year on record.  

UAE is also choking under “alarmingly high” air pollution levels due to its fossil fuel industry, said Human Rights Watch, on Monday (Dec 4). 

Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels have risen to yet another record high this year, according to the Global Carbon Budget report, published on Tuesday (Dec 5) amid the ongoing UN climate summit. 

The emissions, according to a report compiled by scientists from more than 90 institutions, will exacerbate climate change and fuel more destructive extreme weather events. 

The overall carbon dioxide emissions reached a record high last year, and have plateaued in 2023 due to a slight drop from uses of land like deforestation, the report noted. 

In 2023, the countries are reportedly expected to emit a total of 36.8 billion metric tons of planet-warming gas due to fossil fuels which is a 1.1 per cent increase from last year. 

According to the report, emissions from burning coal, oil and gas all rose in 2023 and were driven by China and India. The emissions will also prove to be a setback in preventing global warming exceeding 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial times, said researchers.

“It now looks inevitable we will overshoot the 1.5C target of the Paris Agreement,” said University of Exeter’s Professor Pierre Friedlingstein, who led the research, as quoted by Reuters.

“Leaders meeting at COP28 will have to agree rapid cuts in fossil fuel emissions even to keep the 2C target alive,” he added. 

On the bright side, countries which have historically contributed most to global carbon dioxide emissions, and continue to be large contributors today, like the US and EU have managed to reduce their emissions partly due to coal plants being retired, said the report.

A record number of oil and gas lobbyists have reportedly been accredited at the COP28 which given its host country is unsurprising, and UAE has made no secret of its plan to include its fossil fuel interests in the climate conference either. 

A bombshell report by BBC last week claimed that UAE’s COP28 team was preparing to hold meetings with governments of over a dozen nations, with intentions of utilising the climate summit as an opportunity to strike oil and gas deals with them.

At least 2,456 people tied to fossil fuel interests registered for this year’s summit, reported Kick Big Polluters Out (KBPO), an international coalition of climate activist groups citing UN registration data. 

If taken as a group they outnumber “every country delegation” apart from Brazil and the UAE, said the coalition of groups, in a statement. Additionally, the fossil fuel lobbyists also outnumbered the 1,609 delegates from the 10 most climate-vulnerable countries combined. 

The Guardian has published a video which showed a heated exchange between Al Jaber and former Irish leader Mary Robinson during an online forum when the COP28 president said, “I’m not in any way signing up to a discussion that is alarmist”. 

He added, “I am factual and I respect the science, and there is no science out there, or no scenario out there, that says that the phase-out of fossil fuels is what’s going to achieve 1.5C.”  

The remark sparked a major global backlash and outcry prompting the UAE leader to do some damage control. 

“I respect the science in everything I do. I have repeatedly said that it is the science that has guided the principles or strategy as COP28 president,” Al Jaber said during a press conference on Monday (Dec 4). 

He also complained how “one statement taken out of context with misrepresentation” had received “maximum coverage”.

(With inputs from agencies)