In a span of 24 hours, Russian President Vladimir Putin faced the greatest threat of an armed insurrection, the biggest challenge to his authority since the leader came to power more than two decades ago.
As the armed fighters of Wagner group along with their chief Yevgeny Prigozhin marched towards Moscow, Putin vowed to punish them, calling their act as ‘treason’ and a ‘stab in the back’ before the crisis suddenly defused after the sudden deal with Belarus.
As per the deal, Prigozhin had to pull back his troops and all the criminal charges against the Wagner chief were dropped. Now, as the Wagner group mercenaries move towards Belarus, emergency security measures still remain imposed in Moscow.
What will be the next steps of Putin?
Even though the immediate threat has been contained, experts believe that Putin has not emerged as a strong leader but rather appears badly bruised. Since the televised address of Putin, in which he loathed the Wagner group for its betrayal, the Russian president has not appeared in public and there have been no plans of any new presidential address in the near future.
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However, in the pre-recorded interview televised on Sunday, Putin stated that he was confident about the progress being made in the war against Ukraine. Some experts believe that Putin will soon lash out at those who remained unsupportive at such a critical time and may also show military aggression in Ukraine.
Speaking to BBC, Polish MEP Radek Sikorski said that Putin would “probably purge those who he saw as wavering”, which means his regime will become “more authoritarian and more brutal at the same time”.
What lies ahead for Prigozhin and Wagner?
It still remains unclear what will be the role of Prigozhin within the Wagner group and in the war against Ukraine and if all fighters will be contracted to the military of Russia.
On Saturday, a Kremlin spokesperson said he “cannot answer” what will be Prigozhin’s position in Belarus. Retired US Army Maj Mike Lyons said that the Wagner group is “an independent fighting company” with conditions which are different compared to the Russian military.
“Maybe some will splinter off. Those people are loyal to the man, Prigozhin, not to the country, not to the mission. I think we’ve got a lot more questions that are not answered right now,” he said.
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“Putin doesn’t forgive traitors. Even if Putin says, ‘Prigozhin, you go to Belarus,’ he is still a traitor and I think Putin will never forgive that,” stated Jill Dougherty, CNN’s former Moscow bureau chief. She further hinted at the possibility of seeing Prigozhin “get killed in Belarus”.
However, she stated that it is a tough dilemma for Russia till Prigozhin “has some type of support, he is a threat, regardless of where he is.”
How will Wagner’s rebellion affect the war in Ukraine?
Some of the most successful fightings was carried out by the Wagner group in Ukraine, even though a lot of its fighters have come from prison and have been promised to be freed from frontline service. The group was heavily involved with Russia in capturing the city of Bakhmut. Russia maintains its stance that the rebellion has not impacted its Ukraine campaign.
However, experts believe the news of armed rebellion may be demoralising for the Russian forces. Some believe that there is the possibility of in-fighting between rival units in the days ahead.
Ukraine, along with being concerned over the chances of Russia escalating its involvement, will also look for opportunities that may emerge from the instability across the border. A counter-offensive has been launched by the forces of Kyiv to reclaim territories which have been captured by the occupiers and feel the unrest in Moscow offers a “window of opportunity”.
Speaking to BBC, former US ambassador to Ukraine Bill Taylor said that Ukrainian forces were in “a good position” to exploit tactical weaknesses exposed by the sudden movement of Wagner fighters.
How will the rebellion impact the Russian people?
When Prigozhin and his armed forces departed Rostov-on-Don, they were cheered by the residents of the city, who were even heard chanting “Wagner”. The videos shared on social media reflected the support Wagner had from the citizens as people shouted, “Take care of yourselves”.
The show of support for Wagner mercenaries was striking in a nation which grew increasingly intolerant of public criticism of Putin’s rule.
“If I were Putin, I would be worried about those people on the streets of Rostov cheering the Wagner people as they leave,” stated Dougherty, speaking to CNN.
“Why are average Russians on the street cheering people who just tried to carry out a coup? “That means that maybe they support them or they like them. Whatever it is, it’s really bad news for Putin,” she added.
Emphasising how concerning it is for Putin to see civilians applauding Wagner units, leading Russia analyst Tatiana Stanovaya said, “Many inside the elite will personally blame Putin for the fact that everything went so far and that there was no proper reaction from the president in good time. Therefore, this whole story is also a blow to Putin’s positions.”
It’s difficult to assess how much Putin’s image has suffered because of rebellion, however, the cracks seem evident.
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