Explained: Are tensions simmering in Crimea, again? Satellite images foretell deadly fight

Russia annexed the Crimea peninsula from Ukraine in 2014, but it always remained a matter of contention between Moscow and the West. The region and its fate were discussed multiple times during the course of Ukraine’s invasion by Russia as experts and analysts see uncanny similarities between the two series of incidents. 

Recently, news outlet Al Jazeera did an analysis of satellite images of Crimea which revealed that the Russian forces are fortifying the Crimean peninsula. It suggests that Russia is preparing for a possible Ukrainian attack aimed at recapturing it. The news report mentioned that such military movements indicate that any attempt will be difficult and deadly. 

The report also mentioned that an investigation by its Sanad news verification and monitoring unit discovered that a fortified barrier was seen at the Crimean border and the surrounding areas between February and March. 

The Al Jazeera report also noted that the images provided to Sanad by SkySat and Planet.com further revealed that the construction and expansion of several significant military bases took place during the same period. 

Images that were taken on April 1 also show that authorities in Crimea have set up a sea barrier at a dock of the Russian Black Sea Fleet in the Sevastopol port, in addition to several new buildings and infrastructure developments within the port area. 

Watch this video of the analysis of the satellite images

While talking about ads for workers needed for the construction of fortifications, analysts weighed in on the shortage of manpower. According to the experts, such a shortage of workforce amid the ongoing war can be a reason behind partially ineffective trenches. 

As quoted by the report, who is a senior intelligence analyst at security company Global Guardian, analysed the photographs and told Al Jazeera: “None of the trenches in any of the photos is 100 per cent complete. All indicate ongoing work, as the trench networks are not connected and lack complete communications trenches.” 

Faintuch also said that the images showing trenches in northern Crimea indicate that Russia is maybe working on deterring Ukraine from mounting a ground assault from the north. 

As quoted by the report, Faintuch further noted: “The new Russian defensive lines leverage the topography and existing villages to create choke points along these highways. In essence, if the Russians find themselves on the defensive in Crimea, they plan on giving Ukraine a taste of its own medicine.” 

Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva hopes to act as a mediator to end the Ukraine war and also issued a vague proposal. He has proposed creating a group of countries to mediate in the war in Ukraine and the Brazilian leader said he was “confident” that this group “would be created” after his China trip. 

Lula had even suggested that Kyiv should give up Crimea to end the war with Russia. But in response, Ukrainian foreign ministry spokesman Oleg Nikolenko said that “there is no legal, political or moral reason that would justify us having to yield even a centimetre of Ukrainian land”. 

Nikolenko also said that “any mediation efforts to restore peace in Ukraine should be based on respect for the sovereignty and the full restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity”. 

Lula suggested Ukraine could give up Crimea to begin peace discussions and noted that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky “could not get everything”. 

A couple of days ago, Zelensky said in a tweet that “the world should know: respect and order will return to international relations only when the Ukrainian flag returns to Crimea, when there is freedom there – just like everywhere else in Ukraine”. 

Russia occupied Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula in 2014, long before it launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine last year on February 2022. It has a huge concentration of forces on the Black Sea territory. 

Moscow has repeatedly said that peace negotiations were not on the table at this stage and vowed to continue its offensive. 

In the fag end of March, Russia reported strikes in Melitopol, which is one of Ukraine’s main southern cities currently held by Russia. 

Experts and analysts have claimed that a successful breakthrough in the area would allow Ukraine to cut the land corridor that links mainland Russia to Crimea. 

Ukraine has already promised to recapture all lost land, which does include Crimea. A recent report mentioned that Ukraine even plans to launch a counter-offensive in the coming weeks or months. However, there’s no concrete evidence to confirm such a report. 

But there have been conflicting points of view as Mykhailo Podolyak, who is a presidential adviser, recently said told the Financial Times that the basis for real negotiations with Moscow is the “complete withdrawal” of Russian armed groups beyond the internationally recognised borders of Ukraine in 1991 including Crimea. He said that there is no question of any “territorial concessions” of sovereign rights. 

Disclaimer: A number of claims and counterclaims are being made on the Ukraine-Russia conflict on the ground and online. While WION takes utmost care to accurately report this developing news story, we cannot independently verify the authenticity of all statements, photos and videos. 

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