After Imran Khan’s arrest and subsequent political ban, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) party finds itself at a critical juncture. Its future hinges on capitalising on its core strengths even without Imran Khan’s immediate presence.
As the nation navigates uncertain waters, the dynamics between parties will significantly shape Pakistan’s political trajectory.
Michael Kugelman, Asia Program deputy director and senior associate for South Asia at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars, offered WION an insightful analysis of the potential scenarios and implications for PTI’s future, the party’s internal dynamics, and the broader political landscape in Pakistan.
According to Kugelman, PTI faces a formidable challenge following Imran Khan’s removal from the political scene.
“PTI is in a tough spot. The entire party has been hollowed out, and with Khan out of the picture it’s essentially anchorless for the time being,” he said.
However, Kugelman pointed out that PTI still enjoys advantages such as “public support and anti-incumbency sentiment”. “If it’s given enough space to operate in, it still has a chance of making electoral gains.”
Hinging on military relations
The expert noted that the party without Imran Khan could make electoral gains “if its remaining leadership is able to improve ties with the military.”
“Its current leader, Shah Mehmood Qureshi, has a good record of relations with the army. So unless PTI is banned, it has a chance to stay relevant. PTI will likely play the long game as well: Try to hold things together and maintain morale at the top and among the support base, and plan for Khan’s eventual release from prison.”
Anti-establishment sentiment in voters
Kugelman underscored the fact that PTI’s strength is intrinsically tied to Imran Khan’s persona.
“Even if PTI is weakened, it will remain a challenge for the state, and especially the army. PTI’s large and growing support base is angry and harbors anti-establishment sentiment, and yet there’s no outlet to channel that sentiment. It won’t vote for the PDM parties or for a new party with former PTI leaders. It wants Khan.”
Khan’s absence, the expert said poses an “existential loss for the party.” “Let’s be clear, PTI revolves around Khan and Khan revolves around PTI. He is the party, and the party is him.”
So what PTI will look like post-Imran Khan?
Kugelman suggested that PTI should be able to survive. “Shah Mehmood Qureshi is someone with experience as a politician and diplomat, and he gets along well with the military. The PTI support base will respect the fact that he refused to cave to the establishment’s pressure, as many PTI leaders did, and he stayed with the party. So in theory, Qureshi can be a stabilizing force, or at least a bridge meant to hold down the fort until Khan returns–if he does return.”
Broader political dynamics in Pakistan
Kugelman offered a nuanced perspective on the broader political landscape in Pakistan. He envisions a form of “status quo politics emerging from this crisis.”
While PTI’s anti-establishment sentiment has put the military on the defensive, thanks to the “Khan effect”, Kugelman does not foresee a fundamental change in the hybrid arrangement where civilian and military leaders shared power.
“We have seen two successive administrations embrace a hybrid regime… and I don’t see that changing. A hybrid regime 3.0 could be coming soon.”
He further pointed out that the ongoing tensions between the PML-N and PPP parties suggest that a clear ruling coalition might not emerge from the next election.
“One area to watch is the PDM parties: The PML-N and PPP are at odds on several issues, including the election date. This suggests they may not agree to serve in another ruling coalition together. The election likely will not result in a clear majority, and a weak coalition is a strong possibility.”
The expert said that a weak coalition would play to the military’s advantage as it is “easier to exploit”, enabling them to exert more influence.
“That’s a movie we’ve seen before.”
