Elections for stability or turbulence? What 2024 will bring for Indian subcontinent’s capitals

As the global vehicle moves into 2024, the rearview mirror of this vehicle shows the trail of the year 2023. There was a ‘mini intifada‘ near the Pakistani capital; Putin’s grip of power was shaken aback by Yevgeny Prigozhin’s insurrection; the Israel-Hamas war after an unprecedented semblance of stability in West Asia after Tehran-Riyadh’s resumed ties; war in Ukraine, which continued to rage; Azerbaijan’s lightning offensive against Armenia over the disputed Nagorno-Karabakh territory. I could go on but let me not.

Looking ahead to the 366-day-long road of 2024, the year will keep journalists up and running and national security nerds up at night. There are elections in India, Pakistan, Bangladesh, the European Union, Mexico, South Africa, Indonesia, and, yeah, we almost forgot, the United States as well. (Trump! Trump!)

But it’s an election year for almost the entire Indian subcontinent.

In the last edition of The Capitals of 2023, here’s a look at that upcoming sequence of events that hold significance for corridors of power across the length and breadth of South Asia. 

Bangladesh’s largest opposition party has boycotted the January 7 elections, expressing concerns about alleged vote rigging. This has potentially paved the way for Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina’s ruling Awami League party’s fourth consecutive term.

In a surprising turn of events, Bhutan’s ruling party faced defeat in the November first-round vote, setting the stage for a runoff on January 9. Unlike its South Asian counterparts.

The unprecedented crackdown on imprisoned former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan-Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) has pushed the scale in the favour of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz party as elections approach on February 8.

India’s ruling Bharatiya Janata Party is expected to win a third straight term in the April elections, leveraging Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s popularity and a fragmented opposition. Unlike Islamabad and Dhaka, Modi’s potential third term is expected to keep a semblance of stability in Delhi’s significant foreign policy postures in 2024 as well.

Other postures of consequence in the year ahead:

Despite being known as one of the world’s least connected regions, South Asia is set to make strides in connectivity in 2024. Bhutan reveals plans for a cross-border rail project with India, while Bangladesh, India, and Nepal collaborate on an electricity-sharing initiative. A transnational transport project, the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor, gains traction, signaling a potential turning point for the region.

The success of these connectivity initiatives depends on factors such as security concerns, financing, and bureaucratic delays. Terrorism risks in Afghanistan and Pakistan raise caution, and continued conflict in the Gaza Strip could impact India’s plans in West Asia. The ambitious India-Bhutan railroad plan faces the challenge of securing necessary financing and overcoming bureaucratic obstacles.

As India concludes its G20 presidency, it faces a new chapter in global outreach without the leadership platform. Diplomatic challenges with Western countries, arising from allegations of extrajudicial killings in 2023, may shape India’s interactions with Global South countries. Beijing’s influence looms large, challenging Delhi’s claim to be a bridge to the global south.

Russia has emerged as a significant player in South Asia in 2024, by simultaneously deepening ties with India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh. As Moscow seeks to counter Washington’s increased engagement in the region, its influence in Nepal and potential attention to Afghanistan could reshape the regional power balance.

That’s all for The Capitals next year. See you in 2024.