Preseason polls tend to unfairly brand teams or create inflated expectations.
Perhaps the University of Delaware being pegged favorite in the Colonial Athletic Association’s October assessment of the coming 2021-22 season in voting by league coaches and media was overly optimistic.
Such exercises are notoriously inaccurate, which is fine. They’re only meant to stir up preseason hype anyway.
As it turned out, Towson and UNC-Wilmington tied for first place in the CAA, with Towson winning the tie-breaker and earning the No. 1 seed for the conference tournament starting Saturday in Washington, D.C.
Towson was eighth and UNCW ninth in that preseason assessment, by the way.
Northeastern, which was second in the preseason poll and actually first on my ballot, finished in last place.
What do we know? But understand this:
Delaware’s CAA championship potential was rooted in its proven ability and experience, with three fifth-year players – Ryan Allen, Kevin Anderson and Dylan Painter, who’d each been All-CAA picks in their careers – as the central figures.
CAA TOURNEY BRACKET: Blue Hens seeded 5th
That made sense then and still does now, even as the Blue Hens (19-12) carry the not-so-attractive No. 5-seed into the Entertainment & Sports Arena. They’ll face No. 4 Drexel (15-13) in the quarterfinals at 2:30 p.m. Sunday.
As it turned out, each of those three has been a tad less productive in some areas this season, with Painter’s ankle injury at Towson Jan. 27 limiting his contributions since. Delaware has relied more on Jameer Nelson Jr., Andrew Carr and, since Painter got hurt, Sanford School graduate Jyare Davis. He’ll be a prime candidate for CAA Rookie of the Year honors when postseason awards are announced Friday at noon.
Delaware enters the tournament with three straight losses, though the Jan. 27 suspended game at Towson completed Feb. 28 is listed on its original date, according to NCAA rules. The Blue Hens haven’t looked like championship material in losses to Charleston and UNCW, or Towson’s comeback victory in Monday’s resumption.
“We’re dealing with a low moment at the end of the season,” Delaware coach Martin Ingelsby said Thursday of the inherent peaks and valleys, “so we don’t want to re-invent the wheel. But I do think we have to be able to make some tweaks and changes that can help us be ready to compete on Sunday, whether that’s personnel, whether that’s offensive stuff, whether that’s doing a couple different things defensively.”
The potential is still there for Delaware to live up to that preseason billing. Here are five ingredients that would greatly benefit the Blue Hens’ title quest.
Better rebounding, defense
Delaware is last in the CAA in rebounds, averaging 30.7 in league games. But there’s a more revealing aspect to that figure.
Delaware also ranks 10th in the CAA in offensive rebounds in league play with just 7.5 per game.
It’s no accident that Towson is second in this category (11.7) and UNCW (9.6) is tied for third, behind Charleston (12.8).
And UNCW, because it doesn’t have great size, isn’t even one of the CAA’s better rebounding teams overall, ranking eighth with 31.5 per game.
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Rebounding is often a sign of toughness, aggressiveness, determination and the willingness to mix it up physically. Those are all areas in which Delaware may have, in recent games, been outshone by its opposition, which Ingelsby has suggested and fans have certainly observed.
Along those same lines, Delaware’s defense also hasn’t always been as steady and suffocating as it needs to be. According to the kenpom.com ranking of all 358 Division I teams, Delaware is 257th in adjusted defensive efficiency. Only William & Mary, among CAA Tournament teams, is worse (278th).
It’s also important for the Delaware guards to crash the boards and aid in that rebounding effort.
Delaware has the potential to be prolific offensively, as it leads the CAA in field-goal percentage (47.8) and is second beyond the arc (37.2 percent) in league games. Delaware also excels at getting to the foul line, though its aim there (72.4 percent, seventh in league games) has been erratic.
But improved rebounding and defense to underscore its scoring are likely imperative for Delaware to have CAA tourney success.
A healthy Painter
Certainly, Painter’s absence has hurt the Hens, despite Davis’ clutch play.
They’ll hope he benefits from his limited play of late, the chance to heal, several days of practice this week and be close to his 2020-21, first-team All-CAA form.
Painter was averaging 13.1 points and 7.1 rebounds in Delaware’s first eight CAA games before he got hurt, showing his important influence.
“He’s a guy that’s back playing,” Ingelsby said, “but he hasn’t been able to really practice. He’s a rhythm guy, [so] getting him back confident because he’s such an important piece for us.’’
Asamoah rediscovering his aim
Ebby Asamoah is No. 1 in CAA games in 3-point shooting at an impressive 45.6 percent. But that was fueled by December/January success.
February has been less fruitful as opposing defenses have caught on, meaning Delaware has to do more to get Asamoah open for looks he likes.
Asamoah has shot just 30.5 percent on 3-pointers in games completed in the month of February, including going 4-for-16 in the last five.
In nine February games, he’s made more than one 3-pointer just twice.
A fond farewell
Allen and Anderson have had great UD careers, with Allen the Blue Hens’ all-time leading 3-point shooter and No. 3 on the career scoring chart and Anderson No. 6 all-time in career assists and also a potential prolific scorer.
Each has had some stellar moments this year, such as Allen’s career-high 35-point effort against La Salle and Anderson’s 26-point showing in a game at Temple that Delaware should have won.
The two have the versatility and talent to spark the Blue Hens to a surprise CAA title. Doing so would certainly etch their names prominently in UD basketball lore.
Delaware could use more 3-point buckets from Allen, a career 40-percent shooter beyond the arc who has averaged slightly less than two per game in CAA action.
From nearby Bowie, Maryland, and a product of DeMatha Catholic’s powerhouse high school program, Allen will also relish playing near his roots.
“We need him to play well and make some shots, kind of the X factor for us,” Ingelsby said of Allen.
Putting a signature on the season
Delaware really lacks a signature win this season.
The Blue Hens are No. 149 in the NCAA NET rankings and have not beaten nobody above them. They are 0-6 against the top three CAA finishers.
ADDING ON: North Carolina A & T continues CAA expansion
This tournament is their chance is to get a couple and, certainly, Delaware has the potential. This is, after all, a Delaware team that’s one win away from No. 20, always a noteworthy achievement in itself. It’s been done by just eight previous Delaware teams.
The fifth seed has never won the CAA Tournament in its 39-year history. Only one No. 5, William & Mary in 2008, has even reached the title game.
Drexel won the 2021 CAA Tournament as the sixth seed, the lowest-seeded champion since East Carolina as the No. 7 in 1993.
They call it March Madness for a reason. But it isn’t really that irrational to conceive of the Blue Hens prevailing, though they’ll have to do many things better than they have in recent weeks.
Have an idea for a compelling local sports story or is there an issue that needs public scrutiny? Contact Kevin Tresolini at ktresolini@delawareonline.com and follow on Twitter @kevintresolini. Support local journalism by subscribing to delawareonline.com.
