China’s population has declined for the second consecutive year with the total population decreasing by 2.75 million to 1.409 billion in 2023, media reports said citing the country’s National Bureau of Statistics. The population in 2023 shrank at an even faster rate than was the case in 2022.
China has been experiencing a declining birth rate and an aging population. This is leading to concerns about demographic challenges. Factors contributing to this decline included the effects of the one-child policy, which was relaxed in 2015 to allow couples to have two children. However, the policy change did not immediately lead to an increase in birth rates.
The COVID-19 pandemic also played a role, with a surge in cases after authorities lifted restrictions in December 2022. The latest data raised concerns about the long-term economic growth of the world’s second-largest economy.
With a drop in the young population, there are fewer workers. Consumers are also on a decline. Moreover, there has been an increasing cost associated with elderly care and retirement benefits. With all these factors in play, the growth prospects in the country are diminishing.
India has already surpassed China as the world’s most populous nation. Keeping in view of the long-standing US-China rivalry, there are discussions about the relocation of supply chains from China to other markets.
Further decline by 2050
United Nations experts reportedly estimate a substantial decline in China’s population by 2050. They project 109 million fewer people than previously forecast in 2019. Moreover, the retirement-age population in China, aged 60 and above, is expected to surpass 400 million by 2035.
In terms of demographic indicators, China’s birth rate in 2023 reached a historic low at 6.39 births per 1,000 people, down from 6.77 births in 2022. The death rate in China also increased, reaching 7.87 deaths per 1,000 people in 2023, up from 7.37 deaths in 2022.
(With inputs from agencies)
