For past several months, Sri Lanka is witnessing serious political instability and unprecedented economic turmoil. The overwhelming perception in Sri Lanka and elsewhere is that the economic crisis in Sri Lanka was caused by nepotism, corruption and above all wrong policies pursued by the government led by the Rajapaksa brothers and their family members in high positions.
The mismanagement of economy resulted in distortions in agricultural sector impacting adversely on food and tea production, huge foreign debts, inadequate foreign exchange reserves. Ultimately this led to a situation when the country ran out of most essential commodities including food and fuel and unmanageably high inflation rates. The popular anti-government civil society movement which began in earnest in April 2022 led initially to the resignation of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa and later the resignation of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa in July this year.
The election on 20th July of Ranil Wickremesinghe as President of Sri Lanka and the appointment on 22nd July of Dinesh Gunawardena as the country’s prime minister was an outcome of peaceful transfer of power within the framework of Sri Lanka’s constitution. Will it put an end to political instability and pave the way for the new government to focus on economic recovery?.
Both, President Ranil Wickramasinghe and PM Dinesh Gunawardena in their early seventies are seasoned politicians. Ranil Wickremesinghe has held the position of prime minister for six times whereas Dinesh Gunawerdana has wide experience of dealing with international community in his capacity as former Foreign Minister of Sri Lanka. He has held other ministerial posts also.
The challenges ahead, however, are enormous. First and foremost is the question of popular perceptions and acceptability. Both these leaders are considered as the protégés of Rajapaksas. The popularity ratings of Ranil Wickremesinghe in particular are very low. He is credited more with failures than successes. However, he is gifted with an acumen that has helped him revive his sagging political fortunes repeatedly and earned him the knick name of “The Fox”.
In 2020 elections, Ranil’s party UNP had won only one out of 225 seats in the Parliament. Yet due to his proximity with Rajapaksa brothers, he was appointed as Prime Minister by President Gotbaya Rajapaksa when his brother and Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa was forced to resign in the wake of popular agitation. He owes his election as President to the support he received in the Parliament from the SLPP i.e. the party led by the Rajapaksa brothers.
The son of the iconic Marxist politician Philip Gunawardena, Dinesh Gunawardena started his political career as a leftist and trade unionist but has been associated with Rajapaksas for over two decades and is labelled as their staunch loyalist. He is considered a strong supporter of the executive presidency and is said to be opposed to greater power sharing with Tamils.
Further, the 18 Member Cabinet sworn in on 22nd July is being described as a “continuity government” in as much as almost all previous Ministers have been re-appointed. There is no clarity at the moment of any possible much-talked-about “national unity government” in near future.
In short, it may not be an exaggeration to say that the Rajapaksa brothers are back in power in their new incarnations known to rest of the world as Ranil Wickremesinghe and Dinesh Gunawardena. Proverbially, the people of Sri Lanka now have old wine in new bottle or perhaps the bottle is also old.
Meanwhile, the civil society activists have vowed to continue their agitation till President Ranil Wickremesinghe also resigns. The president is obviously not in a mood to oblige. In one of his first acts as president, Ranil Wickremesinghe ordered a pre-dawn military raid at Colombo’s main anti-government agitation site in which at least three activists were brutally assaulted by soldiers despite the protesters promising to vacate the area by 2 pm, Friday, 23rd July.
It remains to be seen as to whether the civil society will be able to sustain its peaceful agitation over a period of time which besides President’s resignation, is making several other demands such as abolition of executive presidency, mid-term elections and restructuring of economy. The SL Government must exercise restraint in dealing with public agitation and the public must keep their agitation peaceful. A semblance of political and social stability in the country is vital for invoking investors’ as well as tourists’ confidence.
The bigger challenge before the new political dispensation in Colombo is in securing quick economic recovery, particularly in areas that impact directly on the daily life of the citizens; in short, the government must take measures to contain inflation, arrange supplies of essential commodities at affordable prices.
President Wickremesinghe hopes to carry forward his dialogue with IMF for a relief/bailout package to its logical conclusion. Will that alone be sufficient? A Donor conference is being planned in Japan. Again will there be adequate pledges? And what steps such as strict austerity measures are the Sri Lankans willing to take to ease the situation?
Sri Lanka is India’s close neighbour with age-old historical and religious and cultural ties. Unstable Sri Lanka has implications for India. In recent past India has extended aid and assistance worth almost USD 4 billion in the form of lines of credits, supply of essential commodities etc. India remains committed to help Sri Lanka but there are limits to which India alone can assist. The need of the hour is that individual countries, international financial institutions must come forward and rescue Sri Lanka at least from total collapse.
There is no evidence that China, which is a part of Sri Lanka’s current problems, is also willing to be a part of solutions. Above all the SL Government will have to think out of the box and quickly embark upon course correction while the people of Sri Lanka must be prepared to display patience for some time. Overall, the journey to even partial recovery can be slow, difficult and even painful.
(Disclaimer: The views of the writer do not represent the views of WION or ZMCL. Nor does WION or ZMCL endorse the views of the writer)
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