Washington — Candidates are set to face off on Tuesday in California’s crowded Senate race, where more than two dozen candidates are competing to represent the nation’s most populous state.
The top two vote-getters in the Golden State’s so-called jungle primary, in which candidates from all parties are competing for a chance at the late Sen. Dianne Feinstein‘s seat, will advance to the November general election.
The campaign for the seat in deep-blue California has been a long battle. Even before Feinstein said she wouldn’t seek reelection, multiple candidates had already announced they would enter the race for a seat that hadn’t been open for three decades. And it may be years before another opportunity, with the state’s other seat being held by Sen. Alex Padilla, a 50-year-old Democrat who was nominated by Gov. Gavin Newsom to finish Vice President Kamala Harris’ term and then elected to his first full term in 2022.
Participating in the crowded primary — which includes a slew of lesser known individuals — are four major candidates. Democratic Rep. Adam Schiff has been considered the front-runner throughout the campaign. But a recent poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies, co-sponsored by The Los Angeles Times, had former professional baseball star Steve Garvey, a Republican, in a statistical tie for first. Democratic Reps. Barbara Lee and Katie Porter are also making a push to earn enough support to advance to the general election in November.
The two candidates who finish first and second, regardless of party, will face off against each other in November. The same UC Berkeley poll found that if Schiff and Garvey advance, Schiff would be the overwhelming favorite to beat Garvey.
Adam Schiff
Rep. Adam Schiff speaks at a town hall hosted by the advocacy group March For Our Lives at East LA College.
Robert Gauthier/Los Angeles Times/Getty Images
The 63-year-old rose to national prominence during the first impeachment trial against President Donald Trump, when he served as lead prosecutor. First elected to Congress in 2000, he’s also worked atop the House Intelligence Committee and on the Jan. 6 select committee, among others. Representing California’s 30th district in the Los Angeles area, Schiff has the backing of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, a behemoth in California politics. At the time of the endorsement, Pelosi said Schiff “knows well the nexus between a strong democracy and a strong economy.”
Steve Garvey
Steve Garvey, Republican candidate for Senate, speaks at a press conference on Tuesday, Feb. 27.
David Crane/MediaNews Group/Los Angeles Daily News via Getty Images
Garvey, 74, is a former infielder for the L.A. Dodgers and San Diego Padres whose entrance into the race in October injected the contest with a late dose of celebrity. More than three decades after he left baseball, the Republican has positioned his bid for the Senate on returning the Golden State to its former glory, saying it’s “time to get off the bench.”
Katie Porter
Rep. Katie Porter speaks at Huntington Landmark Senior Community in Huntington Beach, Calif., on Oct. 17, 2022.
Myung J. Chun / Los Angeles Times via Getty Images
Porter, 50, represents California’s 47th District in the Orange County area. She’s been in Congress since 2019, after she flipped a longtime Republican seat in an area that was once home to Ronald Reagan and Richard Nixon.
After arriving in Congress, she gained attention on social media for blasting corporate and government officials in congressional hearings with her signature whiteboard. Porter has the endorsement of her former law professor, Sen. Elizabeth Warren, who said Porter has a “backbone made out of steel.”
Barbara Lee
Rep. Barbara Lee speaks to supporters during her campaign launch rally at Laney College in Oakland, California on Feb. 25, 2023.
Melina Mara/The Washington Post via Getty Images
Lee, 77, has been in Congress since 1998. The progressive icon, who’s regularly pushed the envelope on liberal ideals in the state and elsewhere, represents California’s 12th District in the Oakland area. In 2001, she was famously the only member of Congress to vote against open-ended authorization for military force following the 9/11 terror attacks. And she previously led the Congressional Black Caucus.
Who do California Senate polls show in the lead?
While Schiff had consistently led in recent polling, Garvey propelled his way to a “statistical tie” with Schiff in the latest poll from the UC Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies. Garvey had the backing of 27% of likely voters, while Schiff had 25%. Porter trailed with 19%, while Lee had 8%.
Democrats haven’t lost an election to the U.S. Senate since 1988. And the seat is ultimately expected to remain in Democratic control come November. But Garvey could shut Porter and Lee, two prominent progressives, out of the race months before then, kneecapping their campaigns before they have a chance to make inroads against Schiff.
Progressives have warned that Porter and Lee are splitting the vote, drawing from similar bases and propelling Garvey to a second-place finish. Adding to the turbulent outlook for Lee and Porter is anticipated low turnout in the solidly blue where Republicans have made subtle inroads in recent years, flipping a handful of House seats in the midterm elections. Voters have been slow to return their mail-in ballots so far, as the all-but-certain rematch between President Biden and former President Donald Trump looms in November.
Should Garvey come in second in Tuesday’s primary, the vote would likely tee up a coronation for Schiff, rather than the Democratic brawl that would follow should two members of the party move forward after the primary. In a matchup between Schiff and Garvey, Schiff leads by fifteen points, according to the UC Berkeley polling.
The candidates will have big shoes to fill, after Feinstein’s 30-year tenure. She was first elected to the seat in 1992 and remained in office until her death in September 2023.
