A few weeks ago, the pundit class were predicting certain defeat for Democrats in the forthcoming midterm elections. They advanced three reasons to justify their gloomy prognosis for the Democrats. One, historically the president’s party does not do well in the midterms. Except in 1998 and 2002, the president’s party has lost seats in the House in every midterm since 1946. Second, historically high inflation, which touched over 9%, has made life very difficult for working class families and most Americans. Third, President Biden’s approval ratings were below 40% and disapproval ratings consistently above 50% for months. All these reasons made even diehard Democrats concede that the coming midterms would hurt Democrats and effectively render Biden a lame duck president in the second half of his tenure.
But the political landscape has changed dramatically in the past few weeks. The Democrats have passed significant legislations – a modest gun safety law, the CHIPS and science bill that subsidizes domestic production of semiconductors, the inflation reduction act has also passed finally that gives the Democrats something to brag about. It is the biggest investment in climate in US history, even though its name is misleading, it will increase tax collection and boost Democrats. Gas prices too have been falling and with them Democrats’ optimism is on the rise.
Last week I hosted Delaware state Senate Majority Leader Bryan Townsend and Delaware GOP Chair Judge Jane Brady on my show, “Khanversations” to discuss the coming midterm elections. I had hoped for a conversation in Delaware’s political tradition — calm and understated discussion, but it turned into a rather intense and heated debate. Don’t get me wrong, I was thrilled and so deeply riveted to the arguments that at one moment I even forgot to play my role as the host. It was utterly fascinating. There was emotion and there were strong arguments. You can watch the show by searching for “Khanversations” on YouTube (or use this url: https://youtu.be/tijxyr5iIpQ).
Townsend began by summarizing the achievements of the Delaware legislature this season. He highlighted the bills that expanded infrastructure, enhanced health, and mental health services, increased public safety, school safety, and also guarded woman’s reproductive rights. He hoped that more could have been done on the housing issue, but overall, he was proud of the achievements of the Delaware General Assembly.
Brady immediately pointed out that one thing that was not being discussed was that the state had run a billion-dollar surplus two years in a row, and she was disappointed that those sums were not being returned to the taxpayers who were hurting from high gas prices and general inflation and to small businesses which were also struggling.
After sparring a bit more on local politics we moved on to discuss the coming midterm elections. Straight away the conversation became about former President Donald Trump. It seems no matter how hard we try, American politics today cannot come out of the shadow of Trump. Brady insisted that Trump was not bad for American democracy. She argued that he “made America stronger.” Townsend claimed that while Trump may not have caused the hatred that we see in the country but “he was the vehicle for it to rise to the highest levels of our government.”
We talked about voter enthusiasm. Voter turnout is historically low in the midterms. Townsend feels that the recent legislative victories by the Democrats and the Dobbs decision by the Supreme Court which has for the first time in decades shrunk constitutional rights for women in the country will bring women voters to the poll in droves. The stunning defeat of the abortion referendum in Kansas, a red state, sends the clear signal that midterms this time have very high stakes and will not be typical. Brady hedged on the question if the reversal of Roe v. Wade would help Republicans at the poles and if GOP candidates will brag about it during their campaigns this fall.
She counter-argued that high inflation, the targeting of Trump, the weaponization of the FBI and negative views of Biden will mobilize Republicans to vote.
I think the midterm elections will be determined by two constituencies — women and younger voters. Expect more women, both independent and conservative, to vote for Democrats if Democrats can make the midterms a referendum on women’s reproductive rights. Messaging is critical. Can the Democrats do that?
Young voters who had voted for candidate Biden in 2020 in large numbers were critical to his wins in battle ground states. So far, they are not impressed with Biden’s leadership and his approval ratings with the young is very low. The inflation reduction act is the biggest investment in combating climate change ever made. Climate is the most important issue for young voters, and if someone can explain to them that inflation reduction means combating climate change, they too may come out to vote for Democrats.
But if inflation remains high despite the dip in gas prices, if Democrats overplay their hand in disqualifying Trump and garble their messaging on Dobbs and climate then history will repeat itself and the president’s party will lose in the midterms.
Muqtedar Khan is professor at the University of Delaware and host of Khanversations.
