As the world leaders gathered at the COP28 summit to discuss the climate challenges and goals, the most ambitious climate target of limiting global heating to 1.5C above preindustrial levels appeared under threat.
The inclusion of achieving a global heat limit of 1.5C (2.7F) was seen as the Paris Climate Agreement’s great triumph in 2015. Till then, the ambition of limiting global heating has been limited to 2C (3.6F), which has left the small island states and other countries that are on the frontline of climate disruption frustrated.
Eight years after the Paris Summit, the severity of the climate crisis has been the only real change for climate experts. Oil companies continue to expand production and they continue to rake profits and they have increased emissions to record levels.
The global temperatures, which have been boosted by an El Nino, are higher than what they have been at any time and have devastating impacts on ecosystem destruction, food supplies and human mortality.
In the first 10 months of this year, global heating had already reached 1.4C above preindustrial levels and there is the possibility of it reaching 1.5C in the near future. Many climatologists have been shocked by the speed at which 1.5C is approaching. As per many influential scientists, the most ambitious Paris target will be breached in the coming years.
Here’s how the climate will be affected if the global heating target reaches 1.5C.
Severe storms, flooding and drought
Flooding, storms and drought are likely to become more severe and frequent with each increasing fraction of a degree of warming.
As per experts, those who will be worst affected are the climate-vulnerable people residing in countries with weaker healthcare systems and poor economies.
As per Catherine Nakalembe, who is the head of the Africa programme of Nasa Harvest, it has been projected that 70 million more people will suffer acute food security in Africa at 2C than 1.5C, The Guardian reported
She added that at lower temperatures, there is a 30 per cent less chance of severe drought than at 2C in southern Africa, while yields of maize and sorghum can be 40 per cent to 50 per cent lower at 2C than 1.5C in west Africa.
Amazon rainforest may reach tipping point
The planet’s non-human inhabitants, with half a degree less breathing space, will suffer considerable losses which will increase the stress on water quality, pollination and the planetary life-support system’s other biological components.
At 2C, it has been projected that 18 per cent of insect species, 16 per cent of plants and 8 per cent of vertebrates will lose half of their habitats, which is at least two times the proportions at 1.5C.
As per experts, the Amazon as well as other tropical rainforests are likely to diminish rapidly when a dry season occurs which as per the projection is likely to be a month longer at 2C compared to 1.5C, and there is likely to be a three-fold increase in extreme heat.
This situation increases the prospect of the rainforest reaching a tipping point, after which it is likely to dry up and become a savannah which has few global benefits like water transport, carbon sequestration and cooling.
Turbulence in marine ecosystem
The health of the oceans also gets affected by a warming world. Oxygen depletion and acidification places pressure on fisheries, on which billions of people are dependent.
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The beautiful coral reef systems, which have been acutely sensitive to the fluctuations in the temperature and the pH of the water, have been going through bleaching events and they are likely to “flicker out” with each fraction of increase in degree.
As per experts, at 1.5C it is already almost impossible to save coral reefs in the Caribbean and parts of the western Indian Ocean. With this, only 10 per cent and 30 per cent have a chances of remaining in good health. The survival rate further declines between 1 per cent and 10 per cent at 2C.
Rise in sea level and melting ice caps
The warming climate in the Arctic Circle, parts of which have already crossed 4C above preindustrial levels, has led to an increase in sea level, melting of permafrost, disruption of the jet stream and release of methane emissions. All these climatic occurrences have become a threat to human survival.
The warming temperature also has been increasing the risk of the collapse of a major Antarctic glacier. “Our survival is at stake,” said Fatumanava-o-Upolu III Dr Pa’olelei Luteru, chair of the Alliance of Small Island States, while speaking to The Guardian.
“We know we must stay within the 1.5C warming limit if we are to avoid the worst impacts of climate change – impacts our islands are already suffering from, including loss of land from sea level rise, catastrophic loss of lives and homes from more frequent and severe storms, lack of drinkable water, agricultural depletion and more,” he added.
(With inputs from agencies)
