Illinois has the highest number of recorded tornadoes in the country this year, beating out states like Texas and Oklahoma that traditionally top the nation.
While it’s not unusual for parts of Illinois to experience tornadoes and extreme weather, the severe weather started early this year.
There have been 97 tornadoes confirmed in Illinois this year. The historical average is 54 tornadoes per year, said Jonathan Porter, AccuWeather chief meteorologist and senior vice president, of weather content and forecast operations.
“You can see that we’re running almost two times [the historical average] through the end of July, and of course 2006 was a very active tornado year in Illinois with 144 tornadoes on that year,” he said.
As Illinois approaches its all-time record of tornadoes in a year, here’s what you need to know about the storms in the state.
Are the 2023 Illinois tornado numbers normal?
Porter said the number of tornadoes so far are above average, but not necessarily unexpected. Illinois typically sees severe storms with higher risks for tornadoes from April through June.
However, Illinois began experiencing severe storms early, with tornadoes being recorded in January, February and March. This early start to tornado season contributed to the high number of tornadoes the state is now seeing in July, he said.
“We had all of the severe weather that we would typically expect there at Illinois, but even more so at certain times in the storm season and severe thunderstorm and tornado season,” Porter said. “But then, we had all of the unusual tornadoes during the winter that really started adding up the numbers pretty quick.”
As July draws to a close, Illinoisans should still remain ready for severe weather throughout the state.
“There’s still plenty of time left in the year. There tends to be a secondary push of severe weather risk later in the summer, for the first part of the fall,” Porter said. “It seems that the next couple months…this could be a record year for tornadoes in Illinois.”
More on Illinois tornadoes:Tornadoes confirmed near Chicago Wednesday, touching down near O’Hare airport
What’s causing the storms?
The high number of storms is believed to be caused by multiple factors, including strong storms on a frequent storm track that occurred during the winter season, Porter said.
Those storms brought warm, humid air from around the Gulf Coast up to Illinois, resulting in tornadoes in the state during the month of January.
Porter added that a significant component to the causation of the storms is that the water in the Gulf of Mexico has been running anywhere from three to six degrees Fahrenheit above historic average over this winter. The storm systems were able to direct that warmer-than-usual air up to Illinois, where it helped cause the tornadoes.
“That air that tends to linger over the Gulf, the warm water in the Gulf of Mexico itself gets entrained with more with greater warmth, greater moisture, and that air is transported north by those winds right up into Illinois and that’s another reason where I think those warmer waters in the Gulf of Mexico have played a role in in increasing the tornado town across Illinois so far this year,” he said.
Is climate change a factor?
While a weather event cannot be completely blamed on climate change, Porter said he believes climate change has a role to play in the Illinois tornado increase.
The Earth stores excess heat from the warming atmosphere in the oceans, leading to higher ocean temperatures that then influence the air systems and consequently cause more storms, he said. These extreme events, like the winter tornadoes in Illinois, are signals of a climate change factor.
“In our view, you wouldn’t necessarily get the intensity or the distribution of those tornadoes during the winter if you didn’t have that warm water and while there’s other factors to the warm water, the global warming atmosphere is certainly a key part,” Porter said.
The warmer water also could have been a factor in the December 2021 tornadoes that devastated parts of Illinois, Tennessee and Kentucky, he said.
“You remember as a horrible tornado outbreak resulted in fatalities in Illinois, and Mayfield, Kentucky, and other locations. That warm water was a factor in that too,” he said.
Map: Deadliest tornadoes in Illinois since 1950
Is Tornado Alley moving?
Tornado Alley, the section of the U.S. where tornadoes most often occur, typically features the Great Plains, including parts of Texas, Oklahoma, Nebraska and Kansas.
Illinois, while typically left off the list, might be included in Tornado Alley soon. Porter said the area with the greatest tornadoes has shifted in recently.
“This is also consistent with what we’ve been seeing in recent decades, which is that many people tend to associate Tornado Alley with states in the plains, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas, and Nebraska. And while those places do certainly have tornadoes in recent decades, the greater density of tornadoes has occurred further east, and further southeast in places like Illinois, in Kentucky, Tennessee, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, Alabama, etc.,” he said.
With the traditional tornado patterns potentially shifting, Porter said he urges people to take weather alerts seriously, even if tornadoes do not normally occur in their area or it is not tornado season.
“Tornadoes are more often occurring outside of the places and times of the year where they’re most typical and where people expect them and those tornadoes by definition tend to be more dangerous because people are not necessarily people who are not in tune with the weather forecasts and weather warnings, they might not expect them,” he said.
More on Tornado Alley:Tornado alley is shifting. So, why are there still so many in the High Plains?
What can Illinoisans expect for the rest of the summer?
Illinoisans should continue to expect severe thunderstorms and tornadoes throughout the summer and into the fall, potentially seeing severe weather in months as late as November.
If tornadoes continue to touch down, Illinois could break the current record for tornadoes in a year, which sits at 144 and occurred in 2006.
“The way the numbers are tracking, I would not be surprised if we break the record. Certainly, is it going to be in play in Illinois, given how accurate the year has been,” Porter said.
Throughout the rest of tornado season, Porter recommends staying vigilant, monitoring the weather if there is a severe storm risk and having a plan in place if a tornado does occur.
“There are so many times we’ve seen in recent years that despite a devastating tornado, intense tornado, people survive because they’re in the right spot. They’re in their basement or they’re in the lowest level or interior bathroom and interior closet, and everything else about a building is destroyed. But that interior room still stands, and somebody was there, and their life was saved because they knew what to do and they took action,” he said.
