Wagner boss Yevgeny Prigozhin serves one master, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. Whatever he says about Bakhmut should be understood in that context.
On Friday, he threatened to pull his troops out, blaming Putin’s defense chiefs for leaving his fighters short of ammunition. Should Putin’s war blow up in his face, Prigozhin has told Russians who they should blame.
Kyiv’s assessment is that he is insulating his long-time benefactor, the man who transformed him from a catering boss to a billionaire mercenary, from the repercussions of military failure in Ukraine.
The night after Prigozhin claimed to be short of ammunition, Russia massively upped its artillery barrage on Bakhmut, raining down 25,000 shells, up from the average of 20,000, according to the Ukrainian military.
In towns nearby, then and since, the still night air carries the near constant sound of heavy shells “crumping” in to trench and tree. Ukraine’s SBU intelligence agency released video they said shows Bakhmut illuminated by fires ignited by incendiary rockets.
Prigozhin may still pull out of Bakhmut. Months ago, Ukraine’s military said if he kept losing fighters at an estimated rate of 100 or so a day, he’d burn through Wagner’s deep reserve of convicts and other mercenary fighters. They say he’s reaching that limit now.
But for now, rather than pull out and cede hard-gained ground, much coveted by Putin, Prigozhin is cooking up a plan to have Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov’s troops step where his dead soldiers stood.
This is confirmation for Ukraine’s military that Prigozhin wouldn’t dare give up on what his boss Putin wants: to be able to call Bakhmut his by the time he stands on Red Square for Russia’s annual Victory Day Parade on Tuesday.
Little surprise Putin’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is playing along, too, vowing ammunition for the fight. It’s the way Putin has remained in power so long, playing one minister, commander or oligarch off against the next.
The Russian president will also see what the Ukrainian commanders see: Prigozhin is gathering acolytes in the military high command, this weekend hiring the ex-deputy defense minister, who was fired by the Kremlin last week, to be one of his own deputies.
For Ukrainians, though, it’s what happens in Bakhmut that counts the most, not Kremlin backstabbing, although they say any chaos in Moscow is always welcome news.
