US intelligence indicates Russia “clearly advancing their ability to invade”


A woman walks past the Wall of Remembrance in front of St. Michael’s Monastery on February 1, 2022 in Kyiv, Ukraine. (Chris McGrath/Getty Images)

Kyiv’s St. Michael’s Monastery looked particularly spectacular on Monday — its golden dome sparkling in the bright winter sun. It was hard to think about a war amid all that beauty.

For most Ukrainians though, the thought of a potential war is never too far away. It’s been on their minds for eight years now, ever since Russia illegally annexed Crimea in 2014. Now, it’s just getting a bit more real.

“This feeling, it’s something new. Previously, we didn’t feel such tension and a real danger. We had conflicts, but there wasn’t a real danger for Kyiv,” Taras Samchuk, a 32-year old historian, told CNN. “It was a small conflict, two groups, Ukrainian army, Russian army — or separatists — but now, it’s 100,000 soldiers near our borders and a lot of rockers … so I suppose we should be prepared. Just in case.”

Samchuk said he doesn’t think there will be an attack, but still wants to be prepared. Out of caution, he and his wife are also hosting her sister for a few days.

“Just in case something happens. It’s hard to cover even 15 kilometres in the city,” he said.

His parents, born and raised during the Soviet era, don’t think it’s necessary.

“Our parents say that nothing will happen, not to be afraid. Because it’s Russians, they are just trying the typical tactics of Soviet politicians or late Russian Empire times, late 19th century, just to show the power, saying that in two days they will be in Kyiv,” he said.

Meanwhile, 20-year-old Andriy Krachevskiy said he is worried how the tensions may impact Ukraine’s economic tensions, but he is convinced there won’t be a war.

“Not in the next few months, for sure,” he said.

His parents live near Mariupol, in a Ukraine-controlled territory in Donbas which is a region now partly held by the separatists. He said they too haven’t noticed much change in recent weeks despite all the headlines about escalations, and are not thinking about leaving the area. “They are where they want to be.”

Andriy Krachevskiy, 20, doesn't believe there could be an invasion — at least not in the next few months.
Andriy Krachevskiy, 20, doesn’t believe there could be an invasion — at least not in the next few months. Credit: Ivana Kottasová

The idea that a Russian invasion might be “imminent” seems almost far-fetched in the streets of the Ukrainian capital — a buzzing European city where people are going on about their business. The public transport system remains busy, shops are well stocked and open, and restaurants are still inviting guests in. But while nothing seems out of the ordinary, Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko is drawing up contingency plans including shelters, evacuation procedures and maintaining communications.

Miroslava Grigorieva, 53, told CNN she wasn’t even willing to let herself worry about a war that may or may not happen. She said she’s been avoiding the news, focusing on staying optimistic and calm.

“What we see in the media, it’s all political and I don’t want to internalize it, so I am not listening to it,” Grigorieva told CNN. “An average Ukrainian, and an average Russian, we all want peace, everybody wants peace … We want mutual respect and to be able to communicate normally.”

Miroslava Grigorieva with her daughter.
Miroslava Grigorieva with her daughter. Credit: Ivana Kottasová



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