In a showdown of science mixed with folklore, are the almanacs on the same page with their winter forecasts for Delaware?
A few weeks ago, we previewed Farmers’ Almanac, but now the granddaddy of all prognosticators, The Old Farmer’s Almanac, has weighed in with its winter predictions.
Published every year since 1792, The Old Farmer’s Almanac bills itself as the oldest continuously published periodical in North America, with 2.5 million copies printed and distributed each year in addition to the readers on its website.
“Depending on where you live, this will be the best of winters or memorable for all the wrong reasons,” said editor Janice Stillman. “One half of the country will deal with bone-chilling cold and loads of snow, while the other half may feel like winter never really arrives.”
For the Atlantic corridor which includes Delaware, The Old Farmer’s Almanac is predicting winter temperatures below normal and precipitation and snowfall above normal.
“The coldest periods will be in early December, early and late January, and most of February. The snowiest periods will be in early to mid-January, late January and late February,” according to The Old Farmer’s Almanac website.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac’s predictions are similar to those of Farmers’ Almanac
A forecasting competitor, Farmers’ Almanac, which dates back to 1818, said the northeast should prepare for a “cold and snowy winter.”
“The first bite of winter should come earlier than last year’s,” according to a press release. “December 2022 looks stormy and cold nationwide with an active storm pattern developing and hanging around for most of the season over the eastern half of the country. Maybe there will be a white Christmas in some areas.”
Farmers’ Almanac forecasts are based on a mathematical and astronomical formula, taking sunspot activity, tidal action, the position of the planet and other factors into consideration.
Meanwhile, The Old Farmer’s Almanac uses a model developed by founder Robert B. Thomas, and the staff has “refined and enhanced the formula with state-of-the-art technology and modern scientific calculations.” They use solar science, the study of sunspots and other solar activity; climatology, the study of prevailing weather patterns, and meteorology, the study of the atmosphere.
How accurate are the almanacs’ winter weather predictions?
Farmers’ Almanac editor Peter Geiger said his publication predicted many of the 2021-2022 winter storms, most notably the early-season nor’easter in the end of October and the unusual blizzard in the last week of April in parts of Montana, Wyoming and the Dakotas.
“Longtime fans…who follow our weather predictions claim they are accurate approximately 80% to 85% of the time,” according to the Farmer’s Almanac website.
The Old Farmer’s Almanac website said, “Our results are often very close to our traditional claim of 80 percent.”
A look back at last winter:Wilmington hit by snow, wind, cold – sights and sounds
The University of Illinois has studied the forecasts and said the accuracy of such long-range predictions is closer to a coin toss.
Professor emeritus John Walsh in the university’s Department of Atmospheric Sciences examined forecasts of monthly temperatures and precipitation of The Old Farmer’s Almanac by comparing them to the actual weather data over a 5-year period.
“Results of this study found that 51.9% of the monthly precipitation forecasts and 50.7% of the monthly temperature forecasts were accurate, concluding that these percentages are similar to the 50% success rate expected by chance,” according to the University of Illinois extension service website.
More weather news:After nor’easter lingers at Delaware beaches, towns focus on repairing dune crossings
Reach reporter Ben Mace at rmace@gannett.com.
